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Thursday, July 31, 2008
ABSO-lutely… not!
Doomed to repeat history are these three posts. I want to highlight these posts because while it tries to make a good effort to make a good estimate, the author doesn’t provide the proper framework to test his work. It must be done against realistic averages, and not simply looking at that someone goes 1 for 4 or some sh!t like that. I provided the proper framework last year. I’m going to make an authoritative statement so that it leaves no doubt where I stand: you must use the plus 1 method (or differentials). Anything else that anyone does is almost certainly mathematical gymnastics that gives sabermetrics a black eye and proves that there are damned lies and statistics.
Anyway, using the plus 1 method, here are the corresponding LWTS values, if we force the out value as minus .28 runs, for 3 different metrics:
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