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Thursday, February 18, 2010
A word on slightly adjusting the Verducci Effect parameters
First off, I’m not sure that this is so much the Verducci Effect as simply an young overworked pitcher effect. I seem to remember Craig Wright talking about this in his book from 25 years ago. Secondly, I believe, with little data, that the way Earl Weaver handled pitchers is the best way (at least one year of long-relief, spot starts, bring him into the rotation at age 23 or 24). Of course, until we actually handle this systematically, we aren’t going anywhere.
Anyway, Verducci has two parameters, both sensible enough: under age of 25 and a one-year increase of 30 IP. As you guys know, I much favor pitch counts or batters faced than IP. A 1-2-3 six pitch inning is not the same thing as an 8 batter, 30 pitch inning. Verducci would count it the same. Seeing that there are about 4.3 batters per inning, and 16 pitches per inning, the “30 IP” parameter from Verducci should be changed to 130 batters faced or (better yet) 480 pitches thrown (let’s round it to 500).
Felix Hernandez went from 857 to 977 batters faced, a jump of 120 batters. And he went from 3199 pitches thrown to 3632, a jump of 433. So, he is outside Verducci’s adjusted parameters, but not by much.
However, certainly Verducci couldn’t put Felix in the same category as the other pitchers, could he? Here are Felix’s pitches thrown, starting at age 20:
20: 3061
21: 3005
22: 3199
23: 3632
That is certainly different from Josh Johnson:
22: 2583
23: 320
24: 1412
25: 3284
I’m all in favor of what Verducci is talking about, but we need additional parameters. And it should be focused on pitches thrown or batters faced, not innings pitched.
And this is a perfect thing for you aspiring sabermetricians to take the recently donated injury database, and make your bones. I would highly encourage that you also include minor league batters faced (or pitches thrown), because, well, they count.
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