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Wednesday, June 23, 2010
A new thread on the “hot hand” for starting pitchers during a game…
OK, I think I have the batter thing fixed.
Shutout thru 7, all PA in 8th or later innings against starting pitcher, including PH appearances:
PA=12481
Pitchers: .331 (13 points better than avg pitcher).
Batters: .340 (4 points worse than avg batter).
Expected wOBA, not including times through order adjustment, but adjusting for pitchers being at home 57% of the time (1 point in wOBA): .326
Actual wOBA: .322
Same numbers but without any PH appearances
PA=11315 (9.3% of previous PA were by PH)
Pitchers: .331 (13 points better than avg pitcher).
Batters: .342 (2 points worse than avg batter).
Expected wOBA, not including times through order adjustment, but adjusting for pitchers being at home 57% of the time (1 point in wOBA): .328
Actual wOBA: .326
So we appear to have a hot hand effect of maybe 10 points, or about .33 rp9, if we assume that the 3rd or 4th time through the order adds 8 points.
Let’s split that up into less than or more than 85 pitches after 7 innings, again with a shutout. We will continue with excluding PH.
Less than 91 pitches
PA=3759
Pitchers: .331
Batters: .339
Expected wOBA: 324 (Pitchers at home 65.5% of time.)
Actual wOBA: .316
13 point hot hand effect, assuming 5 points for times through order.
More than 90 pitches
PA=7401
Pitchers: .331
Batters: .345
Expected wOBA: 331 (Pitchers at home 52% of time.)
Actual wOBA: .331
9 point hot hand effect, assuming 8 points for times through order.
Let’s split the games into day and night games:
Night games only, NO indoor stadiums
PA=6578
Pitchers: .330
Batters: .343
Expected wOBA: .323 (Pitchers at home 56% of time.)
Actual wOBA: .318
5 point hot hand effect, without any “times though the order” adjustment.
Day games only, NO indoor stadiums
PA=2858
Pitchers: .333
Batters: .345
Expected wOBA: .331 (Pitchers at home 59% of time.)
Actual wOBA: .346
Wow, this is really interesting! There seems to be no hot hand effect in these day games, and the times through the order effect may be on the order of 15 points!
What about indoor games?
Indoor games, day or night.
PA=1879
Pitchers: .332
Batters: .341
Expected wOBA: .329 (Pitchers at home 53% of time.)
Actual wOBA: .324
Let’s look again at day and night games, from the 7th inning on, rather than the 8th, after a 6 inning shutout.
7th inning or later
Night games, no indoor
PA=18212
Pitchers: .334
Batters: .346
Expected wOBA: .334 (Pitchers at home 55% of time.)
Actual wOBA: .333
Day games, no indoor
PA=8676
Pitchers: .335
Batters: .345
Expected wOBA: .335 (Pitchers at home 56% of time.)
Actual wOBA: .350
Hmmm....
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