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Monday, July 13, 2009
A month and a half ago, we were talking about a juiced ball…
I didn’t buy it then and I don’t buy it now. According to Greg R. at Hit Tracker, home run distances were 7 or 8 feet (I think those were the numbers) longer this year than last, suggesting that the ball was juiced this year at least as compared to last year.
At the same time, according to the STATS and BIS data, home run and overall fly ball distances were NOT significantly up this year as compared to last year, I think.
As well, run scoring was substantially up in both leagues (as of a month and a half ago).
Here are some current numbers:
runs per 9 innings both leagues combined: 08 as of July 12, 4.57 09, 4.65
HR per 9 innings: 08, .986 09, 1.035
HR per 500 PA: 08, 13.1 09, 13.3
Citifield and Yankee Stadium are the only new parks or park changes this year of course. HR are up quite a bit at YS and down at Citi Field, as compared to last year. Combined there have been about 30 more HR hit at both those stadiums than last year at this time, I think.
If we remove those 30 HR, we have the following:
2008
HR per 500 PA 13.10
2009
HR per 500 PA 13.15
Add in the fact that we have a lot of rookie pitchers this year (innings-wise), I think.
I just don’t see much evidence that we have a juiced ball and the concomitant increased run scoring this year.
Every year there seems to be some anomaly at some point early in the season (last year, it was the increased home team win percentage and the higher run scoring in the NL as compared to the AL) and an accompanying “explanation.” Then, lo and behold, everything returns to normal for the rest of the year.
Greg, if you are reading this, what are your numbers for average HR distance this year as compared to last year?
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