THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Thursday, April 16, 2009

7-2 plus .481 equals .500

By Tangotiger, 10:08 PM

Dave’s post is spot-on, but reading the comments in that thread made me wonder if there are other people who have a mistaken impression as a few of those readers.

Suppose you thought on April 1 that the Mariners were a true talent .481 team (78-84). Suppose that there are only 153 games this year. That would mean you expect them to win 74 games.

Now, suppose they started off 7-2, and there are 153 games left to play. Your original prior (.481) hasn’t changed (for whatever reason). Does this mean your estimate, as of today, is now for them to win 81 games? Or, is it still to win 78 games?

The answer is 81 games. Dave explains it perfectly. I’m posting because I’m bothered that some people may think otherwise.

(30) Comments • 2009/04/20 • Sabermetrics • Statistical_Theory

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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Thursday, April 16, 2009

7-2 plus .481 equals .500

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