THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Thursday, October 08, 2009

4th down, on the 32 yard line: FG or punt: does it matter if it’s 4th and short or 4th and long

By Tangotiger, 01:26 PM

Apparently, it does!

For example, when kicking on 4th and 1 from the 32, coaches went for the FG 100% of the time. But when kicking on 4th and long (7+ yds) from the 32, coaches went for the FG less often--80% of the time.... It’s as if teams with 4th and short feel like they came so close that they really want to come away from the drive with points. And teams with 4th and long feel more resigned to giving up the hope for points, preferring to pin the opponent deep in his own territory.

The only other thing I’d say is to look at the quality of teams (off and def). But, those numbers seem pretty damning.

(30) Comments • 2009/10/09 • Sabermetrics • In-game_Strategy • Other Sports • Football

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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Thursday, October 08, 2009

4th down, on the 32 yard line: FG or punt: does it matter if it’s 4th and short or 4th and long

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