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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Wednesday, July 07, 2010

25 wins for Halladay?

By Tangotiger, 04:50 PM

Going through the mailbag now.  A reader sent me this:

http://www.wcbias.com/2010/04/17/roy-halladays-historic-season/

I guess April is tailor-made for these “on pace” articles.  You know what I’d like to see?  Rather than saying that Halladay is on pace to be the first 25 game winner since… whoever… Bob Welch I guess. I’d like to see this: Roy Halladay is on pace to win 25 games since CC Sabathia was on pace to win 25 games since Pedro was on pace to win 25 games since Clemens was on pace to win 25 games.

Get my meaning here?  We THINK of these things as historic things.  In reality, the comparison point is not Halladay’s 3-0 start extrapolated to 25 wins, but Halladay’s 3-0 start compared to other pitchers after 10 days.

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July 07, 2010
25 wins for Halladay?