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Monday, October 27, 2008
09 defensive projections from Chone
Great stuff!
http://lanaheimangelfan.blogspot.com/2008/10/defensive-projections.html
I think I would have a “further regression” for everyone toward zero (rather than just using the Fan Scouting Report as the regression mean). Actually, I would not use zero for the “further regression mean” and I don’t for my UZR defensive projections. I would use some kind of speed score. Not knowing anything about a player other than his speed, especially for the OF, tells us a lot about his defense (I think there is like a 4 run swing between fast and slow players, but I don’t remember off the top of my head).
IOW, you can use the FSR as another data point, but I don’t like the idea of using it as a regression mean. That is not really the point of a regression mean. the FSR is biased, is subject to sample error (it is based on fans watching a limited number of games), etc.
Also, someone asked on his blog whether he was using the position-adjusted or non-position adjusted ratings to regress towards. I hope he is using the non position-adjusted ones unless his projections are position neutral.
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