Filter posts by...
Sabermetrics
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
http://tangotiger.net/scout/
A call to arms for these teams:
Arizona Diamondbacks
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Indians
Florida Marlins
Houston Astros
Oakland Athletics
Pittsburgh Pirates
Washington Nationals
Overall, after one week, we’re at 47% of reaching last year’s totals. Brewers, Royals, and Giants fans have already submitted more ballots this year than last year.
Keep spreading the word!
Thursday, September 02, 2010
Pat says:
UZR liked him for 31 runs above replacement. ... Still, UZR wasn’t alone; DRS said he was even better, at 32 runs saved, and Total Zone liked him for 27 runs. It was truly an incredible year for Guti.... Finally, the glove hasn’t played like it did last year. UZR still thinks he’s been good for 7.5 runs, while DRS is even more bullish with 16 runs…
It’s VERY POSSIBLE that Guti’s glove DID play exactly last year as it is this year. That’s because UZR has an uncertainty in classifying the degree of difficulty of a play.
Then, there’s simply random variation. For example, Pujols can be a true .440 wOBA hitter, and he swings and approached each PA exactly the same, and in the first 600 PA he has a .420 wOBA and in his next 600 PA he has a .460 wOBA, and this does NOT mean that Pujols played better. He played the same, and good/bad luck explains the difference.
I’m not saying that this is what happened in Guti case, or any player’s case. But, it’s important to understand that seeing a UZR number is not like seeing a wOBA number. wOBA has one uncertainty (random variation), while UZR has a second uncertainty (classification of batted balls).
***
You also hear about how a park “played” like a hitter’s park, even though it is a pitcher’s park. If players at PETCO for example generated more runs there than away, that doesn’t mean PETCO is now a hitter’s park. It simply means that random variation reared its head (you flipped 10 straight heads). It happens.
Good article by Jason. In the media v media|blogger, it’s like a bear choosing between Usain Bolt and Ernie Lombardo: the media will always look for the easier target.
Magic Johnson preferred to play against Larry Bird, because that’s how greatness is defined.
It’s almost not worth trying, right?
ESPN’s Mark Simon is carrying the WPA torch:
From 2007 to 2009, Howard not only has the highest Win Probability Added in September/October, but he dwarfs the second-rated player on the list--Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols. It’s not even close. That’s true, even if you stretch the data back to 2006.
Sabrmetrician Bill James awarded Howard his “Clutch Player of the Year” award in 2009. James knows of what he speaks.
Tom Tango, the same person who devised the Win Probability Added formula, also has a formula for “Clutch Rating.” In figuring a player’s clutch rating, you look foremost at situations that are high-leverage, in which the game is on the line in that turn.
Wednesday, September 01, 2010
Mike makes the case for why it’s real.
Bill James had a post about how to track how “regular” usage a starter was used in a given season. Basically, it’s a way to express numerically in one number the dizzying kinds of patterns all pitchers go through. David Pinto implemented James’ idea.
While it takes years to go from once-in-a-generation catcher Wieters I to go to Wieters II (Montero) to Wieters III (Bryce Harper), it took only two+ months to go from once-in-a-generation Strasburg I to Strasburg II (Aroldis Chapman).
The difference is that he walked ALOT of hitters in the minors, so he is unlike the polished Strasburg. It’ll be interesting to see what the forecasters do with Chapman (who given his walk rate, might be more like the young Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson, themselves also once-in-a-generation pitchers).
Place your bets, gentlemen, place your bets…
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
By , 10:25 PM
How often do you see someone try and bowl over the catcher these days, a la Pete Rose and Ray Fosse in the 1970 All-Star Game?
How often do you see that when the runner would have been safe by a mile if he had just slid in like 99.9% of players do these days?
Try and guess who made that ignoble and boneheaded play. If you saw or heard of the play, obviously you can’t guess…
Poz has a very powerful style of writing, one that elevates him to one of the best sportswriters in USA and Canada, and keeps the readers mind enthralled and entertained. Me? I can wield numbers in such a way as to make your mind numb. Both ways work, though Poz’s way is far more popular. (And I agree with the majority, as I’d pick him over me.)
As a perfect example of the contrasting styles, Poz was asking if a great season (or really how many great seasons) should be enough to put someone in the HOF (or your personal HOF). This is how Poz wrote that article today titled Obviopiphany, and this is how I wrote that article two years ago, titled Observed Performance Inferring True Talent (OPITT).
Poz gave you Side A that appeals to the majority, and I have Side B that finds a niche with the minority.
I love crowdsourcing because there’s so many smart people out there who know alot, and their voice drowns out those who don’t know much. And the best part: if you disagree, you are automatically in the minority.
Dave is crowdsourcing the crowd as to Crawford’s likely contract signing (meaning what they predict he will get, not necessarily what he is actually worth).
And, he notices what I’ve noticed any time I do these surveys: you don’t need alot of people. He said results stabilized after 25 votes. And, you guys probably noticed that when I run my Polls around here, after 20-40 votes, results don’t change much.
That’s why for the Fans Scouting Report, we don’t need much participation. Once I get 20 votes for any single player, I’m happy. Indeed, even at 10-15 votes, that’s pretty good. The reason is because we already kinda know the answer. And after 15 votes, you get a very strong pull toward the consensus.
And, for this reason, something like Fans tracking plays (in parks that can’t afford FIELDf/x) would have great value. You position 9 fans across the park, and get them to record what they see. Rotate them every inning to account for potential bias. See which fans are closest to consensus, and weight them heavier for the season. Indeed, you won’t even need to download play by play, because those 9 fans can agree on what the various calls were. 9 fans x 81 home games x 30 teams x 50$ = one million dollars. Call me crazy, but I think it’s worth a million bucks to 30 teams.
There are four different setups, one is official, and the other three unofficial. Depending on how you see things, feel free to choose the setup that makes the most sense to you.
John Eric Hanson is the only forecaster to finish in the top 5 in all four setups. Hanson also won the official competition last year, and I think finished fairly high up in the other unofficial competitions I ran. So, yeah, he done good.
The baseline comparison point should be Marcel. Marcel finished middle of the pack in 3 of the competitions, and IS LEADING in one of the competitions (the head-to-head one… the setup that was the official competition last year).
The results. First the three unofficial setups:
Read More
By , 02:02 AM
Giants are winning 1-0 in the bottom of the 8th with their starting pitcher, Sanchez, leading off the inning at bat. He has already thrown over 100 pitches. Sanchez is a good but not great pitcher. Somewhere around league average.
They let him bat. Nothing happens in the inning for the Giants. In the top of the 9th, he walks the leadoff batter and they immediately take him out. What was the point of letting him bat? Either you think he is still good enough to pitch the entire 9th, whether he gets the first batter out or not, or you don’t. Not to mention the fact that the next batter (after the walk) is a lefty (Gonzalez).
IOW, if you plan on taking him out if the first batter gets on, then obviously you think that he has little or nothing left in the tank. If that be the case, pinch hit for him and then bring someone else in in the 9th.
Bochy’s decisions were clearly of the “I’ll do whatever it takes to avoid criticism,” rather than actually think about what are the best moves to help his team get into the post-season.
First, “I won’t take my starter out while pitching a shutout, lest my relievers blow the game and I get lambasted for that.”
Second, “If the first batter gets on, I’ll take him out, lest I be accused of leaving him in too long.”
Third, “I’ll bring in my closer, Wilson, against the lefty batter, Gonzalez, even though my closer threw over 30 pitches the night before, lest I lose the game without bringing in my stopper.”
The other reason for bringing in the lefty to pitch to Gonzalez, or even leaving Sanchez in, is to keep Fowler from stealing (a generally underused strategy - bringing in a lefty to keep a runner from stealing second).
Needless to say, it all blew up in Bochy ‘s face, and they lost a game that they could ill-afford to lose…
Monday, August 30, 2010
By , 11:13 PM
I don’t know his numbers this year (or last), but I’ll play scout for a minute.
He throws basically two pitches: An 83-85 mph fastball with little command and little movement. He also throws a 71-73 mph changeup also with little command. While it is somewhat deceptive, it is too slow to fool many hitters. It is simply too easy to recognize at that speed. He occasionally throws a 78-79 mph slider and very occasionally a slow curve. They are not very good pitches.
I don’t think he would get too many high schoolers out. Honestly. OK, I exaggerated a little. I am using the word “honestly” like “literally” in the other thread…
Love the idea and execution Mike has.
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Siomply tracking good plays and bad plays (at BIS, Bill James spearheaded a long list of good and bad plays that you would visually see, and simply tally… kind of stuff I applaud wholeheartedly). Longoria is up there for 3B:
Highest Net Rating
Third Basemen in 2010
Evan Longoria 37
David Wright 36
Scott Rolen 29
Mark Reynolds 28
Ryan Zimmerman 25
>> Based on video review
by Baseball Info Solutions
Saturday, August 28, 2010
I LOVE this:
So Morris had those 162 wins in the ten years from 1980 to 1989. Frank Viola had 163 in the ten years from 1984 to 1993, and Ron Guidry had 163 from 1977 to 1986. So if you think Morris belongs in the Hall of Fame (and assuming you agree with the rest of the world that those other two guys don’t), you’re not only giving Morris credit for getting to play with Trammell and Whitaker and Lemon and Evans, you’re also giving him credit for happening to do most of his best work in years with the same number in the tens place.
By , 09:31 PM
In the Boston/Tampa game tonight, in the bottom of the 7th with Boston leading 1-0 and a runner on third and 1 out, Matt Joyce hits a clearly foul fly ball to deep RF. Drew makes the catch and the runner on third scores easily.
Drew could have not caught the fly ball. Should he have? The count was 3-2 on the batter and Dan Johnson was on deck. Buchholz was still on the mound for Boston.
Of course all teams should know the answer to that question and should be relaying it to the outfielders. My guess is that virtually no teams do that.
from Amazon
Recent comments
Older comments
Page 1 of 199 pages 1 2 3 > Last »Complete Archive – By Category
Complete Archive – By Date