Monday, February 06, 2012
When is a life entity considered a person?
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NOTE: Presume all of these pitchers are free agents.
Here’s the play.
If you can’t see it: Cliff Lee has runners on 2B and 3B with 2 outs. He gives up a solid line drive hit to short LF, that Ibanez gets to on one hop. Runner on 3B scores easily, and Ibanez gives it his all, throws a strike to Ruiz, who gets a solid collision from the runner, but holds on to the ball for the third out.
Cliff Lee didn’t go anything good on that play. His pitch was going to be a called ball, but the batter thought he could drive the ball anyway. No LF could have turned that play into an out. Ibanez made likely his best throw ever. Ruiz was the perfect catcher in terms of blocking the plate and holding the runner.
And yet the boxscore is going to show that Lee gave up only 1 run on that play and that he got an out (1/3 of an inning) on that play.
So, the question is what does Cliff Lee DESERVE in terms of credit.
Suppose all players are signed for one year. And, all players are paid only at the end of the season. A pure pay-for-performance setup. The league handles all payments.
There are seven teams (Team A through Team G) that have as players the following 5 players (who have played 160, 140, 120, 100, 80 games).
Games A.... B.... C.... D.... E.... F.... G....
160 120 120 120 120 120 120 120
140 105 107 109 110 113 116 120
120 090 094 098 100 106 112 120
100 075 081 086 090 099 108 120
080 060 068 075 080 092 104 120
The numbers represent the runs created by each player. So, Team A has the 100 game player creating 75 runs, but Team G has their 100 game player creating 120 runs.
The average player generates 0.5 runs per game.
The salary of the above 160 game (120 Runs Created) players has already been set at 20MM$.
For which Team would you have the league pay exactly 20MM$ for each of the five players? That is, for which Team do you find that the five players listed are equivalent to each other, in terms of their past performance?
(Note: presume the league average starting pitcher is a .500 pitcher, with a 4.00 ERA.)
(Note: presume the league average player would create 81 runs in 162 games.)
Note: You take the number of runs he’ll allow per game, and divide that by the league average. So, if he allows runs at half the league average, that means an index of 0.50. If he allows runs at 20% higher than league average, that’s 1.20. If he allows runs at the league average, that’s 1.00.
Four polls:
A reader asked me to crowdsource this. This is like one of those jellybeans in a jar experiment. We really don’t think much of it, but get a crowd together, and maybe we can figure it out. If you have real data, DON’T post it in this thread. Wait a day or two for that (or send it to me).
Last chance to fill out the survey:
http://www.tangotiger.net/survey/
Please take a few minutes and let us know how much the players on your team are going to play. A couple of more fans of the Astros, Marlins, and Royals would be appreciated.
#tangosurvey
http://www.tangotiger.net/survey/
Please take a few minutes and let us know how much the players on your team are going to play.
And please, help spread the word!
***
I should have added: thank you very much for all the time you guys spend on filling it out. It’s a huge benefit to me and, really, to everyone else, not only for this year, but in a historical sense, for posterity.
Feb 11 04:03
MGL: Today on Clubhouse Confidential
Feb 11 04:02
Reader Mail of the Day: Why do we need X years of fielding data? And what about outliers?
Feb 11 02:12
Performance through the ages
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Dwight Evans
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For Your Soul
Feb 10 21:07
Hero of the month: Brittney Baxter
Feb 10 18:32
Moneyball at Villanova
Feb 10 17:00
Psst… wanna intern in Canada?
Feb 10 15:01
New PECOTA
Feb 10 14:28
Win expectancy charts used in football… in 1983!
THREADS
February 10, 2012
Jose Molina
February 10, 2012
Reader Mail of the Day: Why do we need X years of fielding data? And what about outliers?
February 10, 2012
Performance through the ages
February 10, 2012
Hero of the month: Brittney Baxter
February 10, 2012
Win expectancy charts used in football… in 1983!
February 10, 2012
Dwight Evans
February 09, 2012
Psst… wanna intern in Canada?
February 08, 2012
Moneyball at Villanova
February 08, 2012
MGL: Today on Clubhouse Confidential
February 08, 2012
New PECOTA
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