THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Why did it take so long to invent these things?

Wheels and long handles on luggage (that actually work).

Self adhesive stamps and envelopes.

Any others along these lines (not like the steam engine or the fax machine)? 

Monday, February 13, 2012

Eyewitness testimony and wrongful convictions

http://openchannel.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/02/12/10376629-witness-error-how-mind-tricks-can-put-the-innocent-behind-bars

If you watch this entire episode, you will likely find it outrageous that this guy could have been convicted. I pray that he is ultimately released. There is a chance, I suppose, that he is guilty, but if you believe everything in the video and they left nothing incriminating out, that chance (of him being guilty) has got be less than 10%. Isn’t the justice system supposed to work the other way around?

I can’t believe this, I really can’t.  And this has to go on all the time. Who do I blame? It is hard to know, not being there of course. But, it appears that the police, the DA’s office, the defense attorneys, the trial judge, and the jurors are all to blame. Big time.

You know, all the nonsense about sports that we hear and read in the mainstream media and among the fans is innocent enough. Put those same things (lack of critical, objective, and scientific thinking, analyses, and processes) into the real world, and you get this kind of thing (a likely innocent man spending his entire life in jail), and others like it.

Believe it or not, that is why I champion sabermetrics.  Not for baseball. It is so that young people can take the same concepts, the same skeptical and critical eye, that we use in sabermetrics, and apply them to things in the real world that matter…

Monday, January 30, 2012

If outsourcing is bad then so are industrial robots and the like.

Non-sports post.

Almost everyone thinks that outsourcing of jobs to other countries where the labor (and sometimes materials) is cheaper is a bad thing. I listen to left-winger Thom Hartman all the time on the radio. He is a really smart and knowledgable guy and he constantly rails against outsourcing as do most commentators and political activists from the right and the left (and middle).

However, is this one of these things that everyone just assumes is bad because the pundits and talking heads say so and it sounds logical - after all, it puts hundreds of thousands people out of work and just allows large, money-grabbing corporations to make more money?

I don’t know the answer, but it seems to me to require a lot of complex thought and analysis and I lean toward thinking that outsourcing is a good thing for a country. Then again, I am far from fluent in economics and the like. Many of you are way smarter than I am in that field.

The basic wealth and prosperity of a nation is based on two things: One, natural resources that other countries need (as well as your own). If your country sits on a pile of oil, no one had to work. You simply sell that oil to other countries to buy whatever you want. I am looking at this on a simplistic level of course. Obviously some totalitarian governments can (and do) keep most of the profit for themselves, live like Kings and give out just enough to survive to the rest of the people.  But you know what I mean.

Two, developing technology and gaining knowledge that enables your country to produce things really cheaply and run things efficiently as well as sell that technology and knowledge to other countries to get things that you want (like the natural resources). If your country can somehow produce food, medicine, cars, etc., at very little cost, then everyone can live a great life and no one has to work real hard.

Anyway, one way to produce things more cheaply is to pay people that don’t live in your country $1 an hour to help you make something rather than $10 an hour you would pay people in your own country. Now, the disadvantage to that is that those people who are out of a job have to find something else to do to be productive.  However, one of the benefits, besides being able to produce things more cheaply, is that some of those people who are out of a job can get educated and do something more productive than answering a phone or operating a sewing machine. The more people you have in a society who do non-menial things, the more prosperous your society. In fact, ideally, a society would be most prosperous if no one in that society did any menial jobs - if all of them were outsourced to people in other countries or you developed technologies that replaced all menial labor. Of course outsourcing everything would be exploitative. But that is another issue.

So it seems to me that outsourcing always outweighs the temporary job loss of the people who are being replaced. In fact, even if some percentage of those people remain completely unemployed forever (and the rest of the country supports them), there is still a net gain.  After all, if one million people lose their $10 an hour jobs and are replaced by one million people in other countries making $1 an hour, a country saves 9 million dollars an hour right off the bat. With that savings, you can actually pay 90% of the people who lost their jobs $10 an hour to do nothing, and you break even!

Anyway, the piece de resistance counter-argument to the notion that outsourcing is bad is this: If outsourcing is bad, then any technology that replaces workers, which is pretty much ANY technology, like computers, industrial robots, machines, etc., have to be bad also!  Sure, that kind of technology creates some more jobs and also increases the overall level of technology in the society, but they are essentially the same thing. Whether I use robots and machines to manufacture my widgets or outsource my workers, it amounts to the same thing.

Finally, the argument that, “Well, the corporations will keep all the profits from outsourcing anyway,” is not an argument, although you hear it all the time. That is nonsense. Yes, the companies will make more money. But the consumers will also be able to buy things for a lot less money. Why can we buy computers, DVD players, watches, phones, TV’s, clothing, etc.  so cheaply?  Only because they are made in China and Taiwan (and Haiti, Mexico, etc.). If it were true that companies reap all or most of the profits from outsourcing and that the consumer (i.e., the whole society) does not benefit much, then it would also have to be true that any technological advance that enables a company to produce things more cheaply and efficiently also is not good because only the company will benefit. Of course, when a company benefits, so do their investors, their employees and everyone else from whom the owners of the company buy things from.

What say you guys?

Monday, April 04, 2011

Worst captcha ever?

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

An auction or a lottery?

Have you seen the commercials for http://www.quibids.com where they tell you that you can purchase retail items in an auction format for pennies on the dollar?  Yeah, right!

Who is selling these items? Is it peer to peer like ebay?  Nope.  The site themselves is an online retailer, like amazon.com.  So they lose money by selling items for pennies on the dollar?  Yea, right!

They simply have a lottery disguised as an auction for each item with lots of vigorish for the house.  How much I don’t know.  Heck, even if it is small they still make lots of money by selling millions of items at retail prices.

How does it work?  Simple. You buy bidding dollars.  If you win the item, you get it for pennies on the dollar and you go bragging to your friends how great the site is. If you don’t win the item, you lose your bidding points that you paid for!  Only a few bucks, better luck next time.  And the site generously offers to let you spend your bidding points on purchasing the item at their retail price plus shipping and handling. If you choose that option you don’t lose anything on the auction.

These things burn me up, as you know.  My blood boils just thinking about it…

Saturday, March 05, 2011

Funniest (and weirdest) thread hijack ever…

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/pearlman_albert_pujols_and_the_treatment_of_people/

American Idol

I got hooked on AI last year and this year I am a dedicated fan.

I think that this season so far is excellent.  I was not a Simon hater, and I am not crazy about Randy, but I really like the judges this year.

They seemed to have softened up their critiques.  I don’t know if that was a mandate from the producers (probably) or just a reflection of the judges’ personalities, but I like it.  There is no reason to be so critical (like Simon used to be at times) for two reasons:  One, they are dealing with real, live young persons (not actors) with dreams, aspirations, and feelings which could and probably are influenced by what the judges say, and two, it doesn’t really make a difference what they say or think (other than when they pick who goes and who stays, and of course they influence the fan votes), so they might as well be as supportive and positive as possible.  For me, it makes for a better show.

Anyway, I am blown away by the talent this year.  They (the show) also seem to be somehow making an effort to have great talent rather than in the past when they had some “freaks” (not good singers) just to try and be entertaining I guess, like these reality shows.

Anyway, on Thursday night I thought it was ridiculously hard for them to pick the 3 wild cards.  The final performances of all 6 (chosen as the wild-card candidates) were great.  For a second, I thought that the judges were going to keep all 6!

I was sad to see Robbie (from a town right next to my home town) and Jovany go.  They both have excellent voices and Robbie seems like the next Billy Joel (with a better voice).

I was also kind of pissed when Brent and Paul were picked for the final 24 rather than the third guy (I forgot his name).  All 3 were brought to “the chair” last week.

I was also not happy with Paul (the Rod Stewart guy) making the final 13.  He sounded OK, but he is no match in overall talent and voice quality for the rest of them.  Not even close.

On Tues (the top 12 guys night), James Durbin and Jacob Lusk were amazing.  On Wed (the girls final 12 night), Karen Rodriguez was fantastic and Pia Toscano’s number was the best I have ever seen.  I was in tears.

What do you guys think?

Friday, February 11, 2011

Are you kidding me?

Wow, there are so many things wrong with this story, my head is spinning!

In case you don’t read it, here is a synopsis:

High school pitcher throws 80 with a wicked curve.  He gets cut from his high school team on the second day of tryouts.  Why?

He has two prosthetic legs and the coach says that he can’t field bunts and the other teams could win by constantly bunting.  Wow!

From the article:

Anthony, a sophomore, was cut on the second day tryouts. Coach Mike Bradley’s main concern was that Anthony can’t field bunts, and that teams would take advantage of his inability to jump off the mound quickly.

What a wonderful inspiration to the school, community, and the world to have this kid pitch on his high school team. And it is not like he can’t pitch.  A high school kid throwing 80 with a “wicked curve”, while not MLB material, is at least average for most high schools.  Who the f**ck cares if their team wins with him pitching?  How is that relevant in high school sports?

Perhaps most importantly, and this was pointed out (because it is obvious) in the SB blog entry (hat tip to them) by Andy Hutchins that referenced this story, what kind of effing coach from another high school is going to order his team to bunt against this pitcher?  Again, who cares if THEY win the game. They should be honored to play against someone like this kid.  And if they bunt, the kid simply drills the next kid in the ribs with his 80 mph heater.  End of story.

BTW, what about the adage that, “Pitching is all about the legs?” Seriously.  Is that another baseball truism down the drain?

Saturday, January 19, 2008

Windows Operating System Re-installed, All Files Deleted, How to Recover

This happened to someone I know (not me).  I’m a maniac about this stuff, and I backup at least weekly, if not more often.  I use SyncBack. which is a great and very easy-to-use software.  If you are reading this, and have no backup solution in place, stop reading, download that software, and backup your data.  Then come back here.  There are also online solutions, like xdrive.com.  The person I know however made no backups.  Let’s move on past that point. 

Let’s get into potential recovery.  I see a product from Stellar Phoenix that purports to possibly helping.  Does anyone out there have any experience in the matter, and can offer software solutions?