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It seems that Rally and Justin each have come up with their own version of Win Shares for basketball. I’m not really a fan on basketball, so if someone wants to compare the systems, and whatnot, please do so.
It’s either D.K. Wilson, or Joe Posnanski. Joe does a deconstruction of the most phony athlete of our time, Tiger Woods (don’t worry ARod… you are close), gives him a personality, and hits a HR. But, as one of the commenters says:
Joe Posnanski has his criteria:
- in a hugely important game
- more than brilliant … it has to be utterly unrepeatable.
- decide the game
His focus was on football, to which these three criteria make the most sense. Anyway, in my lifetime for MLB, and sticking to the above rules, I guess it would be Kirk Gibson v Eck. But baseball is really about the build-up of drama, not that single event that really marks football. In basketball these rules wouldn’t even make sense. In hockey, these rules would only make sense in an OT game, and the goalie can never win here.
What rules can you make up for baseball? First, I’d call it the Greatest Moment ever, since that’s what baseball is about, not a single play. The first criteria is fine, and the third criteria would be “impact the game hugely” (basically, a high WPA play, or a series of such plays). The second criteria would be “I don’t believe what I just saw”. Kibson/Eck still qualify, but now you have the 8th inning of Cubs/Marlins and Pedro/Little game added in (again, in my lifetime). Carlton Fisk, but that was just a bit before my time. 9th inning of 1986 Game 6.
In hockey, I’d keep the first criteria, and the new second criteria ("I don’t believe what I just saw") and the third criteria would be ("back-and-forth action, where each team was about to take a huge lead or win the game; or a play that you can relive knowing that you’ll never see such a play again"). So, the Rangers/Islanders Game 5 would be one such game (1984). The Gretzky/Lemieux Canada Cup 1987 winning goal. I’m not happy with that third criteria, since it lets you bring in the 1972 Summit Series, but not the 1980 Miracle on Ice.
Americans have a few anthems: the Star Spangled one, God Bless one, and Pledge Allegiance one. I suppose even the This Land one (though Canada among other countries have their own version with the text changed, but it’s not as popular as in America).
Canada has two big anthems: Oh Canada..... and The Hockey Night In Canada theme song. CBC, which held the licencing rights for the last 40 years let it lapse, and TSN (the Canadian version of ESPN, and owned by CBC competitior CTV) bought perpetual use rights for likely between 2.5 and 3 million$. (CBC went as high as 1 million$)
I’m trying to think of a song or melody that is as iconic as this theme is, in America. Maybe the Wide World of Sports, at one point? But, even that one pales in comparison. Maybe you have to go to the movies, like Godfather or Star Wars?
Great job by Canada’s (Toronto’s) Globe and Mail in praising NBC over Canada’s CBC. The ice-level reporting was pretty good. The NFL usually saves this for some hot chick to talk to players about how they feel. MLB sometimes gets a headset talk with the manager every now and then. The story of the playoffs was really Zetterberg and Fleury, and NBC was all over it. Great job on them (and Versus) in terms of the focus on selling the game.
As for Tiger Woods:
I don’t really care. Let’s talk about the Dodgers. … I don’t think anybody really watches hockey any more.
Does he not realize that the NHL ($3billion) draws 50% the revenue of MLB ($6billion)? Two years ago, the PGA drew $1billion. In 2007, prize money, in total was 257 million$, which is less than one-fifth of the prize money (salaries) of NHL players. Tiger does the classic arrogant thing that if he’s not interested, then how can most other people be interested? Not only arrogant, but an ignoramous to boot. And mostly, I hate Tiger for making me side with Mike Milbury:
Milbury: “You know what? I’m gonna change the name now. It’s gonna be Tiger Wuss. Here’s a guy that took about three months to get over a simple arthroscopic surgery. You look at [Pens forward] Ryan Malone. His face exploded with a slap shot last night — he’s back out in 10 minutes!
“Keep your yap shut, Tiger, or I’ll send a couple of wingers down there — [Pens forward] Gary Roberts — to tidy you up a little bit, meat head.”
Pierre McGuire: “I’ll just say this: Tiger Woods doesn’t usually have a bogey, but this was a triple bogey.”
McKenzie: “Unfortunately, [Woods] epitomizes what a lot of Americans feel about hockey: They don’t give it a chance, they don’t get it, they’re not wired correctly — and to those Americans that do get it, Mike Milbury, thank you very much.”
James Duthie: “I’ll say this to Tiger: Nobody watches golf any more either! Except when you’re playing, then everybody watches it.”
That third period of Game 3 of the Cup Finals was fantastic. That’s hockey right there. Speed, checking, flow, action, no stoppages for a good 5 minutes, incredible saves and a depressing goal. Really, what could have been better?
If you can’t become a hockey fan after that, I don’t think you ever can.
Would most magazines exist if they didn’t make lists like this one?
Why, why, why would the NHL Network (channel 401 on Cablevision, NJ) broadcast the tape-delayed live broadcast of a game (GREAT!), but will feature a scroll bar at the bottom telling you the final score of the game? I’ve got to now force myself to not let my eyes wander.
I know someone else here (Rally?) said that the MLB.com games have a somewhat similar problem, in that you can tell how much broadcast time is left in the game (because of the scroll bar), and therefore, likely precludes certain outcomes if you are nearing the end of the scroll bar.
I’ll point you to Phil, who does a great dissection and who links to the academic paper, along with Brian Burke’s great 3-part blog post (read only the third one if you are pressed for time).
Rally gives us his Win Shares, and the gang (Roland?) at 82 Games his On/Off. I’m all into On/Off (basically, With Or Without You), appropriately adjusted. It leads directly to how people talk and think about players. And, as you saw with my Jeter article, it makes things super clear. It’s argument-proof!
Montreal is infamous for its hockey riots. We had the one with Rocket(*) Richard being suspended and the league president was in the building the following game. We’d have one following a Cup victory. And, of all things, one happened last night after the first round (still 3 more rounds to go to the Cup). First time for that one. Almost always, it’s following the last game of the playoffs.
And the fans usually target cop cars. What makes Montreal such a target is that everything is downtown. The arena is right at the heart of downtown, there are tons of bars and restaurants downtown, the subway (Metro) has two lines that goes right through downtown, you can get from any part of the island to downtown in under an hour, and typically 20 minutes. Downtown is where the action is. And the people who start the riots are not the ones that go to the game! Just your standard hooligans who take advantage of the situation. And Montreal police is usually undermanned in these sport riot situations (until the next time). You’d think they’d learn their lesson. But, someone’s gotta pay I guess.
A true shame. You just need a few hundred idiots, and if you put them all in the same place, bad things will happen that is irrespective of the thousands of other law abiders. I’m sure Detroiters know what we’re talking about.
(*) There’s only one Rocket. I don’t like it that Clemens and Ismael got the same nick name.
For a long time, there were two major online hockey databases that I was using: HockeyDB.com, by Ralph Slate, and EuroHockey.net by lots of people. Now, we have Hockey-Reference.com by Justin Kubatko, with data provided by NHL-sanctioned Dan Diamond.
The NHL seems to be embracing the share and share alike that is the web motto:
“We actually support people snagging content of ours,” Mika said. “We love for our fans to share content and to send the links around. It’s something we really encourage.” The NHL is able to control the use and distribution of highlights because it is not locked into television deals with major networks. Using material gleaned from NBC, Versus, and the various regional cable rightsholders packages, the NHL can offer video content to its fans to see and share free of charge.
The old goal-differential trick in figuring out how to get a team into the playoffs.
And I like the headline with regards to the soccer equivalent of Morganna, along with her rap sheet.
(Hat tip: Voros)
Michael Farber, one of the great writers few know, describing Joe Juneau’s post-NHL life.
This is what happens when you put the statisticians, with their noses in spreadsheets and stopwatches, in charge of sports. If chess and boxing have a more intelligent approach to ending a game with time still left on the clock, why can’t the NFL follow suit? The two coaches shake hands, and the game is over. Is that so hard? The rule may say that you have to play with time still left on the clock, but it also says that you can only have the 22 players and referees on the field. You can’t do one without the other.
It was a decent first 3 quarters, and pretty good fourth quarter.
Doug Drinen does what we’ve always wanted to do one second after the Squares sheet lands on our desk.
In response to a Phil-linked thread about figuring the chances of the Patriots winning if their number of possessions goes down, I said:
Technological aids in the Olympics?
If an able-bodied person wants to take a chance and become Steve Austin (Lee Majors), that’s his right. That someone was forced to go that route, doesn’t change the fact that he’s human and therefore qualifies. You can put in a rule to ban certain drugs, because those drugs are not required to function as a human being. The same cr-p occurred in golf a few years ago, when someone wanted to use a cart because of a physical condition. They even had Jack Nicklaus testifying against him.
This is like Magneto turning his back on Mystique. Or Jordi not qualifying for the Academy because of his visor. (Apologies for all the pop culture references.)
If it so happens that in 50 years that the 8 qualifies for the 100m finals in the Olympics all have prosthetics, so be it. Some group can come up with the non-ParaOlympics as a consolation. Now you know how women feel.
(Hat tip: Sabernomics.)
May 16 23:50
Now you frame it, now you don’t
May 16 23:47
Dodgers’ win reversed because Mattingly did not attest to proper score!
May 16 20:44
How to beat the shift
May 16 20:02
Sponsoring MLB jerseys
May 16 16:56
Did Manny Pacquaio actually quote Leviticus?
May 16 16:06
Does changing your pitch frequency lead to substantial change in results?
May 16 14:18
Extra Innings: One-minute review
May 16 14:16
This particular criticism of UZR is unfounded
May 16 13:21
Psst… wanna intern for the Astros?
May 16 12:23
Arena wars
THREADS
May 16, 2012
Now you frame it, now you don’t
May 16, 2012
Dodgers’ win reversed because Mattingly did not attest to proper score!
May 16, 2012
Does changing your pitch frequency lead to substantial change in results?
May 16, 2012
Sponsoring MLB jerseys
May 15, 2012
Andre The Hawk Dawson speaks
May 15, 2012
Euro 2012 Preview
May 15, 2012
How to beat the shift
May 15, 2012
Will Pujols end the season with at least 30 HR and .500 SLG?
May 15, 2012
Kershaw v Strasburg, part 2
May 15, 2012
Did Manny Pacquaio actually quote Leviticus?
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