THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Saturday, February 11, 2012

Who is Jeremy Lin?

The story begins:

This kid out of nowhere – out of Harvard University, out of the Reno Bighorns and Erie Bayhawks – had done it again, done it with a devastating 38 points, seven assists, four rebounds and two steals in the Knicks’ 92-85 victory over the Lakers.

“Players don’t come out of nowhere,” Bryant said.

What he was trying to say was this: The talent’s there, but sometimes the opportunity isn’t. It takes the right circumstances and timing, the right coach, right system. And sometimes, it takes desperation to try anything. And for these New York Knicks, well, Jeremy Lin constituted anything.
...
Twenty-four hours earlier, Bryant had been bemused over this Lin story. He wanted details, wanted to know the fuss. “Well, he’s got to deal with me now,” Bryant said.
...
No one in the history of the NBA has scored as much in his first three starts, but this has nothing to do with the statistics. It’s the feel, the touch, the spirit and the purity of it all. No Amar’e Stoudemire. No Carmelo Anthony. And it doesn’t matter what spare parts are thrown together with Lin because he’s elevated everyone, transformed five fingers into a fist.

“It’s a completely different team,” center Tyson Chandler said. “You can’t look at this team the same.”
...
Before D’Antoni had run out of players to try for these Knicks a week ago, before he had thrown Lin into a game with the New Jersey Nets, the Knicks’ front office had a decision to make: Do we guarantee Lin’s contract for the rest of the season, or release him with Tuesday’s deadline?

Knicks executive Mark Warkentien had been calling trusted associates in the NBA’s D-League, league sources told Yahoo! Sports, and asking them: Who does Lin play like? Who’s a good comparison? The Knicks had to make a decision based on old information, old scouting reports. And then, finally, D’Antoni dispatched Lin into the game against the Nets. Here was the answer, the unfolding of a week that has made Lin a sporting and cultural spectacle.

“A great story,” Bryant said. “It’s a testament to perseverance and hard work. A good example for kids everywhere.”

Those who worked with Lin in the D-League a year ago will tell you: He’s so grounded, so smart, so savvy, that he’s the perfect person to keep his bearings within a world exploding around him. Lin shrugs and simply says, “I am not really too worried about proving anything to anybody.”

And his wiki page reads as someone with steak and little sizzle, and recruiters prefer the sizzle.

Friday, February 10, 2012

Win expectancy charts used in football… in 1983!

http://sagarin.com/sports/wham_bam.pdf

Some familiar names, notably Sagarin and Wayne Winston. Football, more than baseball, is a great sport for using win expectancy charts.  Whereas in baseball the pitcher has a large set of pitches and locations to choose from (and won’t even necessarily hit the target), and the batter has to choose to swing or not, and game theory and randomization will play a huge role here, in football you have a much more finite set of choices, and the play is over after the play (as opposed to baseball because of the count).  The clock, penalties, the turnovers, etc, all add great variables that make the win expectancy really valuable for football.

Glove-slap: Kevin.

Tuesday, February 07, 2012

When to purposefully lose the lead

According to the incomparable Brian Burke, the Pats should have given up the go-ahead TD at the two-minute warning.

The smartest play of all would’ve been for Belichick to have allowed the touchdown even earlier. The Patriots certainly could have done so on the play prior to Bradshaw’s touchdown run, when he was stopped for a one-yard gain, forcing New England to burn its second timeout. In fact, they probably should have allowed a touchdown as early as the two-minute warning. That’s the point at which the Win Probability of receiving a kickoff down by four or six points (0.23) exceeds the Win Probability of trying to stop the Giants from bleeding the clock dry (0.2). The Patriots would have had almost two minutes, two timeouts, and all four downs available to get a touchdown and steal the win.

Basically, every time out has a certain win value, every second lost has a certain win value, every yard lost has a certain win value.  And Brian is saying that the Pats would have maximized their chances of winning by allowing the TD to happen at the two minute warning.

This is exactly what win expectancy charts (and to a lesser extent, run or point expectancy charts) should be used for.

For Your Soul

Poz has an interesting game.  It’s clear that if you pick baseball, you should pick a pitcher.  That’s because, for one game, a pitcher has far more impact than any other player.  That makes the choice quite simple: Pedro Martinez, 1999 or 2000.  Or does it?  After all, Pedro did not pitch the full season, and do you want to go into a winner-take-all game with a chance that this guy won’t pitch?  So, Dwight Gooden 1985 might be the better choice.

For hockey, goalies don’t have the same one-game impact like pitchers do.  Gretzky is the obvious choice, the Devil will counter with the Broad Street Bullies, naturally.  But again, it’s a player in a team sport, and as we know they are just one part of the game.  Basketball would be better of course, but still not enough.

So, you have no choice but to go with a one-on-one situation.  And that means choosing Tiger at his peak.

Golfers “playing through”

When do you let golfers play through?  How much do you let it escalate?  And check out the ESPN comments (sort by MOST LIKED), as there are tremendously funny comments in there.  ESPN readers really outdid themselves on that one (too early though?).

Monday, February 06, 2012

Interview with Howard Baldwin

Great stuff from Timo.

Monday, January 30, 2012

When is an almost six hour match not too long?

When it was Nadal-Djokovic, that’s when.  It’s not the quantity, but the quality.

I was also shocked how little commercial time there was as well.  In that fifth set, it seemed they were resting alot, and each time, I thought they’d cut to commercial, but they didn’t.  Hats off to everyone involved for keeping the pace of the game so tense.

Imagine if they allowed each player’s coach to come on the court, and talk strategy.  The only thing fans care about is the players.  Not the coaches, not the officials, none of that.

Sunday, January 29, 2012

Favorite sport of Americans

Football, by a landslide, with 49% choosing either NFL or college football.

Friday, January 27, 2012

Relocated Team Doctrine v Stationary Team Doctrine

Great post:

Dale Hawerchuk was born in Toronto and played major junior in Montreal. He was drafted by Winnipeg, where he set records for nine years, and then traded to Buffalo. He skated briefly in St. Louis, ended his playing career in Philadelphia, and now coaches in Barrie. And yet it is only in an arena in Arizona that his number 10 hangs, retired, over the ice.
...
The solution to this is (like the Japanese answer to the paradox of Theseus’ ship) to assert that the essence of the team is in its form and its function rather than its substance. A team is not what it is but what it does, defined not by the specific people or buildings or shirts that it uses but by its position in a system of social relations. And in the case of a team, that position is inextricably and fundamentally linked to a place.

Now, I wouldn’t necessarily tie it to a place.  After all, if the Jets move from Long Island to NJ (or wherever they came from), that’s not a new thread.  What matters is the fan base.  Did the fan base follow the team, or not?  If so, link them.  If not, sever them.

So, you do this on a case-by-case basis, and thinking like an historian, and not trying to fit things into simple slots with simple rules.  Rules of thumb by definition don’t work all the time.

Did Jets fans follow the Coyotes?  Did they abandon the Coyotes when the new Jets arrived?

There’s no doubt that this applies to the Expos/Nationals:

Surely, a team that has to move is a black eye for the League, but a team that simply ceased to exist would be two black eyes, a broken nose, and a kick in the nuts. Because of this Doctrine, the NHL can say that it has not ‘lost’ a franchise since WWII killed off the New York Americans. Every other failed team has been bought or merged elsewhere, and every time that happens, the NHL manages to avoid taking direct responsibility for an unjustified or unstable overexpansion.

I don’t know how the Dodgers and Giants moving cross-country should be handled.  What we need is an understanding of their fan bases, and what happened after the Mets showed up.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Sportsmanship: Federer v Nadal

Federer is the ultimate in class.  He shows that you can drive yourself, while still keeping your composure.  You don’t have to create some fictitious hate of your opponent in order to win.  I guess the closest we have in baseball is Mariano Rivera.

Federer is so revered that Rafael Nadal, his equal if not his superior, will still only say just good things about him.  Not the kind of “don’t wake the sleeping giant” platitudes, but outright respect and admiration, things he doesn’t even need to say, but he does anyway.  Even a non-nice guy like Andy Roddick publicly said of Federer: “You know, you really are a nice guy.” Federer is everything that is right about sports. 

One nice baseball rivalry is Felix and Beltre, who talk playful smack with each other when they matchup.  One young umpire was unaware of their friendly rivalry, that when Beltre “pretended” to be upset with Felix, the umpire ejected him from the game.

Monday, January 23, 2012

When athletes make political statements

Tim Thomas declines offer from Obama.

Back in the 1970s, when Quebec was riding its separation wave, there was huge pressure on the french players on the Montreal Canadiens to support the separatist party that eventually came into power.  From my memories of that time (I wouldn’t even turn 10, so take that for what it’s worth), all the players remained neutral.  They reasoned it wasn’t their place to exude their influence on a topic they didn’t earn a right to influence on.  It’s one thing if it’s Angelina Jolie, who uses her celebrity to further her non-entertainment passions.  It’s another for a player to be conscripted.

Where does Tim Thomas fall?  I have no idea.  I would only hope that he speaks from the heart.  But I agree with the author that it seems rather impolite, and intolerant, to refuse dinner with your country’s democratically-elected president.  What others consider an honor, he considers it rather lacking.  It’s acts like his that are divisive.

I haven’t given this any thought, so feel free to educate me.

Explaining NFL OT Rules

I think the ref did a good job of explaining the OT rules.  I’m not sure if there’s a great way of explaining it.  He was pretty clear, and didn’t give too much information in each sentence.  He wasn’t terse, and he wasn’t verbose.  I liked it.

What wasn’t clear is what happens on a safety on the initial drive (reverse?).  Presumably, it should end the game, but maybe there is an exception there as well?

Monday, January 16, 2012

Greatest players: Jordan, Gretzky, Ruth, Pele, and

Willie Mays, Jerry Rice, or Jim Brown.  Poz Poll.

Impressed at the variety of readers at Poz’s site.
1.1 baseball players
0.9 football players
1.1 basketball players
0.9 hockey players
0.6 soccer players

Really, a pretty good spread right there.

Saturday, January 14, 2012

HORSEf/x

I don’t follow horse racing at all, but this blogger talks about data in horse racing.

There may be a slight light on the horizon, although it remains to be seen how bright that light is, in the form of Trakus. Trakus, a system that captures race data from transmitters placed inside the saddle cloth of each horse, eliminates much of the subjective nature of result charts and timing. The implementation of Trakus provides another source for race data although, at present, the data is not any easier to access on a large scale than. You can find Trakus charts for free on their website but not the ability to download results to a more data friendly environment, or in large quantities. Still, the advent of Trakus brings renewed hope that, eventually, the statistical black box of horse racing will one day be more open and available. It also provides for a much more robust and accurate system of charting results.

***

And there’s a horse called Tom Tom Tango for sale.

Tom Tom Tango is by Let’s Tango All Night and out of A Woman In Love. He is broke to ride and is walk, trotting, and cantering. He is a very smart colt that just need finishing. Tom is unique with his Blue Eyes! He is high headed and has nice motion. Due to the owner’s unexpected commitments, Tom is priced for immediate sale.

Change blue to hazel, and I guess the rest of it is reasonable enough…

NCAA has a reserve clause?

Apparently they do:

There was one problem, however. Even though O’Brien was a bench warmer, Martelli, O’Brien said, was furious when he found out the player was leaving. As O’Brien later recounted to Sports Illustrated, when he told his coach that he was going to be attending Alabama-Birmingham for graduate school, Martelli responded with an expletive-laced tirade, vowing to block him from finishing his course work, and even threatening to sue him.

In a second meeting a few days later, according to O’Brien and his lawyer, Martelli told him that he would either “be playing at St. Joe’s next year or not playing anywhere.” O’Brien had already ascertained that there was no N.C.A.A. impediment to him playing for another school. It has a special rule for athletes like him — graduate students with remaining eligibility — allowing them to enroll in another university without having to sit out a year. The rule also states, though, that the player’s previous school has to agree to “release” him. St. Joe’s, clearly acting at Martelli’s behest, refused to sign the necessary paperwork.

Let’s put aside the question of why college athletes usually have to sit out a year when they transfer, even though coaches can switch schools at the drop of a hat. That’s a column for another day. Let’s focus instead on O’Brien’s plight. How can a student who has graduated from one institution be prevented from participating in an extracurricular activity at a different school? How can a miffed coach’s pique control the activities of a student who doesn’t even play for him anymore? Can a music teacher who is angry at a violin student prevent him from playing in another school’s orchestra? The very idea is absurd. Why is it any less absurd when the student is an athlete? Why is it any less wrong? Yet that is precisely what the N.C.A.A.’s rules make possible.

Glove-slap: Gabe.

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

NFL v NFLPA

Uh.... what?!?

Momentum: tomorrow’s starting pitcher, or a flip of the coin?

Yowza. 

Tyler at mchockey notes with derision some claims of momentum following fighting, by citing this claim:

They have determined that a fight has a positive effect on at least one team’s momentum in 76% of fights and increases the momentum for both teams about 1 out of every 4 fights (23%).

A reader at Tyler’s site helpfully notes:

1. 25% of the time, a fight makes no difference to the play of the game, or both teams experience a detrimental effect from fighting.
2. 25% of the time, both teams experience a positive effect from fighting.
3. 25% of the time, your team gets a net positive effect from fighting.
4. 25% of the time, your team get a net negative effect from fighting.

So, the claims being reported can be explained by simple random chance.  i.e., flip of the coin.

The other claim, that there’s more “activity” following a fight can also be explained as:

If we know that most fights involve guys who get less ice time and we know that guys who play less tend to see fewer shots for and against when they are on the ice, we’d expect that shots would increase after a fight because the fight probably involved guys who are less likely to see shots taken by either team when they were on the ice, meaning that it’s more likely that guys who see more shots when they are on the ice will be coming over the boards in the next three minutes.

That is, whoever is NEXT on the ice determines the course of action.  That is, it’s not that the players on the ice were somehow incentivized to take (and allow) more shots, but that the guys on the ice following a fight are going to be better than the guys on the ice who did the fighting.  i.e., tomorrow’s starting pitcher

***

I’ve lived through the bold claims with baseball from 10-15 years ago, and it looks like history is repeating itself.

Fighting leads to goals?

Phil tried and tried and tried, and was able to finally stumble on one set of parameters that MAY indicate something.

It’s not monkeys at a typewriter creating Shakespeare, but it’s close.

Monday, January 02, 2012

Pay-for-play college

A plan.

You don’t like it?  Come up with your own.

Like how it is already?  This thread is not for you.

NHL ticket revenue

Tyler:

(All in millions of dollars.)