Buy The Book
I’ll warn you in advance (what other kind of warning is there?) - this is a long post and one that is hard to follow…
If I look at park and league adjusted AAA stats and compare them to MLB stats for the same players, weighted by the lesser of the two PA (e.g., if a player had 300 PA in AAA in a certain year and 100 PA in MLB in a certain year, I use the 100 PA to weight each of those stats, AAA and majors), I get this:
Good stuff here.
Setting the #1 pick’s value to a “1”, I get this equation as the best-fit:
17 / (pick + 16)
So, a #1 pick has a value of “1” (or 100%). A #7 pick has a value of 74%. A #18 pick has a value of 50%. A #52 pick has a value of 25%. Therefore, the suggestion is that trading up from 18 to 7 is equivalent to trading up from 7 to 1 or from 52 to 18.
I should do this for the other sports and see what we get. I know I linked to data like this in the past, but I never thought of doing a simple equation like this.
In MLB, bunting makes more sense when the run environment is low, say close to 4 runs per game. But in college, when run scoring is very high, why bother bunting, beyond the “keeping them honest” aspect? Well, Jeff gives us good data (ESPN):
Last season, in over 3,000 sacrifice situations (runner on first and/or second with fewer than two outs), the bunter and all baserunners were safe over 17 percent of the time. An error was committed more than five percent of the time. Double plays? Less than one percent.
Let’s say that means 22% of the time, it’s like an infield hit, 1% of the time, it’s a DP. Jeff doesn’t report the other numbers, but let’s say 50% of the time, it’s a ground out with runners advancing, and 27% it’s a fielder’s choice (runner out, batter gets on).
Breaking out our trusty RE24 chart (WE would be better, but let’s take it simple):
- 5% of the time, you add +.9 runs (I put runners on the corners)
- 17% you add +.6 runs
- 50% you get -.2 runs
- 27% you get -.4 runs
- 1% you get -.8 runs
Adding it up, and we have -.07 runs. That’s with an average hitter in a 5 runs per game environment. That seems like the kind of numbers you’d get with MLB outcomes too. I don’t buy that you should bunt MORE in college because of the poor fielders (they are also poor fielders when they get the ball on the ground on swinging away, no?).
But, at least it seems defensible in certain situations, and is not the crazy idea I initially thought.
This is why we need scouts.
Glove-slap: Mike Fast.
Someone want to provide a forecast for this guy?
I like that this is posted in a manner like this.
If you do a “view source” you will also see a player_id associated to each player. That’s good, but it could be better. To whoever runs that site: please, switch to an MLBAM ID. Pretty please? With a cherry on top? And if you have historical data, post that as well (also with MLBAM ID).
Hawerchuk shows that when a goalie starts off hugely hot after 15 games, coaches fall over themselves to give the kid a chance to keep playing. Except, after that 15-game hot start, Hawerchuk looks at the goalie’s save percentage and.... it’s league average!
That is, in-sample, he’s hugely hot. A .931 save percentage means that you are best in the league. He looks at out-of-sample, and… league average.
Try it out with baseball rookie pitchers if you like. I’d be interested to see the results. I’m going to guess that rookie pitchers who post a RA9 of 85% or better of league average in his first 10 starts (with an overall average of 75-80%) likely will have an RA9 of close to league average (maybe 95% of league average) in his next 10 starts.
Where are the saber jocks? That’s my challenge of the day for those looking to flex their muscles.
Or so the story is supposed to go.
I hope one of you aspiring saberists is on top of this potential development.
Fantastic research by Scott McKinney.
Scott, if you are out there, I’d love to have access to, or have you post, your dataset, including WAR. I would like to see the total WAR while the player was still pre-free agency. If someone wants to take this research and help out the community, attach the MLBAM or Retro ID to each player (unless Scott has already done it, in which case this project is even more impressive).
UPDATE: data here
http://tangotiger.net/files/batop100.csv
I revamped my MLE’s. Basically they are component equivalencies derived from looking at the majors to minors (AAA and AA) ratios for players who played at both levels (minors and majors) in the same year or in consecutive years (minors and then majors). The ratios are different, depending upon if you compare the same year or consecutive years, so I basically use the average of the two. I first park and league adjust the component stats. I don’t use different MLE’s for different leagues, as some people do.
Keep in mind that these kinds of MLE’s include regression to the mean. For example, if a player hits really well in the minors, his stats in the majors are not really a one-to-one translation. They are a translation plus a regression.
Look at it this way: Say a player hits 30 HR in AA in 2009. If he played in 2010 in the minors again and his true talent stayed the same, he would likely hit maybe 22 HR (after regression). If he plays in the majors in 2010 and hits 15 HR, the “real” translation is 22 to 15 and not 30 to 15. I, however, and most forecasters, bypass the regression and just use the 30 to 15 translation, which is technically not correct. In fact, it will make lesser players look worse in the majors then they are likely to be. Since we are using the 30 to 15 as the MLE translation, we get a ratio of 2 (or .5) even though the “real” ratio should be 22/15 or around 1.5. So, if a player in the minors hits 10 HR, he will have an MLE of 5. But, if we regressed him first (say, to 9 HR) and then applied the 1.5 ratio, we would have his MLE at 6.
Anyway, here are my leaders for batters and pitchers:
Hitters (>200 PA)
1) Mike Stanton with an OPS+ (MLE OPS divided by the average major league OPS) of 135
2) Brandon Belt 122
3) Clint Robinson 113
4) Kila Kaaihue 113
5) Matt Rizzotti 112
Honorable mention to Rob Chirinos, Brandon Guyer, and Carlos Santana.
Pitchers ( starters only with >100 IP), based on component ERA
1) Anthony Lerew
2) Josh Tomlin
3) Lucas French
4) Casey Coleman
5) Thomas Diamond
Honorable mention to Blake Beavan, Jeremy Hellickson, and Elih Villanueva.
For relievers only with more than 50 IP:
1) Clay Rapada
2) Jon Albaladejo
3) Justin Thomas
4) Matt Reynolds
5) Robert Manuel
Mention to Joe Bateman, Jason Buursma, Josh Kinney, and Josh Wilkie.
As compiled by Carson:
1. Jesus Montero, C, NYA
2. Robinson Chirinos, C, TBA
3. Derek Norris, C, WAS
4. Andrelton Simmons, SS, ATL
5. Mike Moustakas, 3B, KCA
6. Zack Cozart, SS, CIN
7. Jason Kipnis, 2B, CLE
8. William Myers, C, KCA
9. Matt Young, OF, ATL
10. Zelous Wheeler, SS, MILNew Minnesota shortstop Tsuyoshi Nishioka’s projected 3.3 WAR would place him second on this list.
What does ZiPS, PECOTA, MGL, et al have?
Bill James had a proposal for revamping the minor leagues, and in order to make it stronger, one of the things that needs to happen is:
c) Every player going to the major leagues, without exception, is required to spend three full seasons in the minor leagues.
He had a bunch of other things, but this one stuck out for me. This would mean Junior, ARod, Heyward, Strasburg, Ryan Zimmerman, and Ichiro would all be stuck. to me, this is nothing short of a recipe for a disaster. I have never liked the strict control on players, as if we can somehow have a one-size-fits-all solution, and this proposal does that. The NHL used to draft players only when they turned 20, and so quality players at age 17-19 were undraftable. The WHA capitalized on these “underaged” draftees, including drafting a 17-yr old Wayne Gretzky, who turned out to be rookie of the year, and finished in the top 10 in scoring. You simply can’t put players in league where they will simply overdominate them, and leaving Gretzky to play in the junior leagues as the NHL would have otherwise done is a problem.
Now, James has good enough intentions, but what are the consequences of what he is proposing? Well, forget about players going to college. If they are required to have a three-year apprenticeship program in the minor leagues, and if college does not give them any kind of waiver, then why would a player go to college? And what of Japanese players, if they too will not get a waiver?
Can we still get to James’ objective of strengthening the minor leagues? Well, how about soccer-style control of players? Suppose we have a Premier League of 12 teams, where the mininum age is say 25. Then we have a Division 1 league of 24 teams where the maximum age is say 24. And a Division A league of 24 teams of no age limit. We have 60 teams (basically MLB and Triple-A, recalibrated), where you’ve got major-league level talent in all three leagues. Heyward, Strasburg (even Felix!) are in the 24-and-under league, you have Utley and Pujols and Halladay in the 25-and-over league. But, there are tons of great players over 25, and the spillover will be in the Division A league. Young players not good enough for Division 1 get spilled over into Division A.
You have three legitimate leagues, each with enough star power that you’d get national contracts, continual fan interest, and so on. You have sixty teams that will have major-league level ambition and interest.
(Note: maybe instead of 24/25 being the threshhold, it would be 25/26.)
Available! From Jeff.
I of course have a soft spot for anyone who gives away stuff that they spent loads of time doing, and Jeff here rises way up my list for doing what he is doing.
Love the idea, really love the effort, and I enjoyed seeing the results:
There were 11 Grade A prospects (10.6%). The Grade A prospects averaged 36.0 WAR over the course of their respective careers — or, 3.8 WAR per season over 9.4 seasons. All 11 of these prospects played in the Majors. Two of them (Chipper Jones and Jim Thome) played in 2010.
There were 15 Grade B prospects (14.4%). The Grade B prospects averaged 10.9 WAR over the course of their respective careers — or, 2.2 WAR per season over 5.0 seasons. All 15 of these prospects played in the Majors (although one of them, Steve Gibralter, recorded only five career plate appearances). None of them played in 2010.
There were 44 Grade C prospects (42.3%). The Grade C prospects averaged 1.6 WAR over the course of their respective careers — or, 1.0 WAR per season over 1.6 seasons. Of these 44 prospects, all but two played (Tracy Sanders, Juan Delarosa) played i the Majors. Six others recorded 100 or fewer career plate appearances. One of them (Matt Stairs) played in 2010.
There were 34 Grade D prospects (32.7%). The Grade D prospects averaged 2.2 WAR over the course of their respective careers — or, 1.5 WAR per season over 1.5 seasons. Of these 34 prospects, all but three (Doug Robbins, Rex de la Nuez, and John Finn) played in the Majors. Nine other recorded 100 or fewer career plate appearances. None of them played in 2010.
Starring Kristi Dosh! Whatever you do Kristi, please never utter “you’ve got that X factor”. In fact, watch the first year of American Idol, and make a list of everything Abdul said, and never say those things.
MGL: would you make a good Simon Cowell?
Harry lays out the groundwork. The component breakdown should be familiar to those who followed DIPS from the start, or for those who remember this from way back.
Jack Moore points out:
Two months ago, the Blue Jays traded for Miguel Olivo just to decline his option and offer him arbitration. Along with John Buck, Jason Frasor, Scott Downs, and Kevin Gregg, Olivo was just one of the group of players with which Alex Anthopolous was plotting to acquire compensatory draft picks, as outlined in this piece. Yesterday, the last of that quintet signed as Kevin Gregg agreed to a two-year deal with the Baltimore Orioles. Just how many draft picks did they bring back, and how valuable are they?
He says:
Another thing I’d like to address is the fine citizen’s of Toronto and Canada in general. I’ve never enjoyed baseball so much as I did when I played it abroad. Yes, I know that Hockey is the National Pastime of Canada, not baseball. And I will confess there were nights I wished TSN would give the Jays, the nation’s only baseball team for crying out loud, a little more airtime instead of rehashing goals by guys who name I can’t pronounce. But, hey, I liked the differences. I liked the culture. I liked the uniqueness and opinions and viewpoints that are underplayed, even missing from US turf. I actually liked reading Canadian’s opinions on American behavior, even when we earned every possible ire for running the world’s banking system into the crapper.
The city was progressive, clean, and beautiful; a great place to be if you’re a player who writes books. I do hope I’m around long enough to write a book about my experience with your team, Toronto (that earthquake you just felt was the collective shaking of your past and present players seized in terror of what I might say). Fear not, you have some incredibly humble and respectable men on your club, many of them I’m proud to call friend.
I’ll miss you, Toronto, but I’m confident we’ll meet again. If not on the baseball field, then at a book signing. Or, at the very least, on the pages of one of the many great Blue Jay blog sites that routinely crank out conjecture on your birds. I owe the media in Toronto a lot, professional and amateur alike. To the crew that covers the Jays in the clubhouse, and the crew that covers them on the net, may I say I would never have been baseball’s third player/author to reach the best seller’s list without you— you were instrumental in one of my proudest achievement. Thank you.
One last point before I go. I’m not a big name, and I’ll never consider my departure from Toronto on par with some of the truly great players you’ve lost. That’s vanity, not to mention arrogant. But, I’ve come into my own in baseball during the Social Networking days of our civilization. Social Networking has changed how we relate as a people. A decade ago, players didn’t have blogs, or Twitter, or Facebook access for fans. Because of these personal connection venues, we’ve had a chance to connect and I feel you deserve a personal farewell. Please don’t think I’m doing any of this goodbye stuff because I think I’m great. On the contrary, I’m doing it because I think YOU ARE great. I wanted to thank you for all you’ve given me in my time with the Blue Jays. I’d also like to say that, thanks to these new tools, you don’t have to say goodbye at all. I’ll always be here in my digital incarnation, anxious to hear from you, even if I’m not wearing Blue Jay Blue this next go around.
Okay, Blue Jay. Thanks for everything, and best of luck this year. I’ll miss you. Oh, and let’s play ball.
May 16 23:50
Now you frame it, now you don’t
May 16 23:47
Dodgers’ win reversed because Mattingly did not attest to proper score!
May 16 20:44
How to beat the shift
May 16 20:02
Sponsoring MLB jerseys
May 16 16:56
Did Manny Pacquaio actually quote Leviticus?
May 16 16:06
Does changing your pitch frequency lead to substantial change in results?
May 16 14:18
Extra Innings: One-minute review
May 16 14:16
This particular criticism of UZR is unfounded
May 16 13:21
Psst… wanna intern for the Astros?
May 16 12:23
Arena wars
THREADS
May 16, 2012
Now you frame it, now you don’t
May 16, 2012
Dodgers’ win reversed because Mattingly did not attest to proper score!
May 16, 2012
Does changing your pitch frequency lead to substantial change in results?
May 16, 2012
Sponsoring MLB jerseys
May 15, 2012
Andre The Hawk Dawson speaks
May 15, 2012
Euro 2012 Preview
May 15, 2012
How to beat the shift
May 15, 2012
Will Pujols end the season with at least 30 HR and .500 SLG?
May 15, 2012
Kershaw v Strasburg, part 2
May 15, 2012
Did Manny Pacquaio actually quote Leviticus?
Recent comments
Older comments
Page 3 of 342 pages « First < 1 2 3 4 5 > Last »Complete Archive – By Category
Complete Archive – By Date