THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Adam Jones said “UZR” and “wOBA”

I get a little kick when a player says anything sabermetric related, and in a good way.

There are stats now like defensive UZR, and all that, but they don’t show the placement of the player. Everything nowadays is so statistical. Like wOBA. We have a wOBA this year –weighted on-base average. It’s pretty cool to look at that, even though we joke about it.

Thursday, May 10, 2012

UZR… used in a conversation without prompted by graphics

As if the Murray Chass quoting WAR wasn’t enough, as if Obama saying that marriage wasn’t the domain of opposite-gendered couples, now we have this:

Look at where Brendan Ryan is. Look at where he made that play. And he did make that play, as he wheeled around and threw to first ahead of Fielder, who is not actually that slow. In immediate response, Mike Blowers remarked “that’ll help his Ultimate Zone Rating” without a hint of sarcasm. The Mariners’ TV broadcast hasn’t only shown UZR in graphics. Tonight a broadcaster - an ex-ballplayer - mentioned UZR, entirely on his own. There were two amazing things about this play.

Progress is all around us.  (Tongue is partly in cheek, for you guys who think I’m not having a bit of fun here.)

Murray Chass quotes WAR… and in a good way!

First Nixon goes to China, and now this?

Example 2012.001 of why not to trust Pitcher Won-Loss Record

Rob Neyer has a good article for you.  Maybe people who quote the W-L record of a pitcher will take their noses out of their spreadsheets and watch a game sometime.

Friday, May 04, 2012

Run expectancy chart on a MLB scoreboard?  Yes!

Mike and Jeff talked about it on twitter, and here is proof.  Darn images are blocked at the office, so I have to wait four more hours to see it myself.  I alerted Pete Palmer of this, since he was the one that did the most to expose it to the rest of us.  And thanks to the new Astros gang for trying out new things!

Jon Weisman

Always good to see good things happening to good people.

Crowdsourcing broadcasters

Wonderful idea for a project.  I love it when people try out their ideas for all to see.

I agree that the high correlation between the separate categories is trouble-some, which really means that you either collapse the categories, or find some more granular categories to ask about.

Sunday, April 29, 2012

How to turn [this] into [that]

Whether it’s satirical or serious (or a bit of both), good job on the writer in turning this:

Into that:

Clearly something needs to be done about the state of professional hockey in Canada, since at this precise moment there is no actual professional hockey being played in Canada, with the second round of the National Hockey League playoffs under way. Everyone has been sent home and forced to think about what they have done.

Thursday, April 19, 2012

Blogger of the year

I’ve had Jeff on my blogroll since the beginning of… well, the beginning.  But, sheeeeeet, this guy has been on a fantastic roll.  I love these two blog posts from last night / this morning, as both brought me somewhere that I didn’t expect to go. 

I don’t even want to clip the portions, because Jeff deserves to be read completely, and in context. And maybe it’s just me, as he’s appealing to my french half, my hockey half, and my Mariners half.

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Dave Cameron

A really good read about a really good guy.  And I know, because Dave told me.

Thursday, April 12, 2012

Game recaps by fans

Is there anyone better than Jeff Sullivan?  If there is, please link.  One of the first things I read every morning is what Jeff says.  This is what I’d rather get than reporters trying to get some banal quote from players, and simply doing their robotic job.  I saw an article that was completely written by software and indistinguishable from those written by people.  I don’t think there’s a software program that can provide the human nuances that Jeff does.  His images linger, and what I get from my morning paper doesn’t.

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

One-month moratorium on MLB blackouts?

It doesn’t exist, but I’d like to propose it.

I’m not smart enough to figure out why these policies exist, other than it’s inertia and models driven by assumptions that may or may not be reasonable.  The problem with models is that they can only be confirmed if it matches reality.  And, we don’t have that when it comes to what happens if you remove TV blackouts.  So, what if MLB.TV says that all blackout policies are suspended for the month of September?  Now, the actuaries have actual data of what happens when you don’t have a blackout policy.  They can update their assumptions to something more reasonable (less uncertain), and then they can come up with a better blackout policy based on their new models.  And hopefully that means that whatever assumptions were made that put Hawaii on a blackout list will no longer apply.

Now, tell me what fine details I’m missing, and how the TV networks impact anything MLB.TV tries to do.

Friday, March 30, 2012

Poz: minus SI, plus USA Today/MLBAM

Story.

Thursday, March 22, 2012

Is there a Redsox/Yankee variable in bullpen-to-starter moves?

A few years ago, it was Papelbon, and now it’s Bard.  You had Joba.  Poor Phil Hughes.  Can we blame the media scrutiny?

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Blogger Chass on the NY Times reporting of the Picard/Mets case

Great stuff from Chass, and he’s a tried-and-true cynical blogger by going after the NY Times.  Most bloggers don’t realize that Murray Chass is their future. Deal with it.

Monday, March 19, 2012

Sabermetric broadcaster

We all love Boog Sciambi.  We ALSO love Vin Scully.

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Vetting power of journalists

According to this, only one journalist was able to figure it out: Gene Maddaus.

Sunday, March 11, 2012

People, not stats

I agree with this writer.

If you choose to write an article that doesn’t reference any numbers, other than runs, then fine.  Go for it.  I’d love to read that article.

But, these writers, who are so offended by FIP and the like, end up using pitcher wins and ERA.  And that’s where the problem is.  It’s not that numbers offends the writers.  It’s that the WRITERS abuse the numbers.

So, if you choose to NOT use numbers, then fine.  No problem.
But, if you choose TO use numbers, then use them in the right way.  Don’t give meaning to numbers that should not have that meaning ascribed to them.  THAT is the problem.

Numbers don’t hurt readers.  Writers hurt readers.

Saturday, March 10, 2012

Mike Fast

Monday, March 05, 2012

MLBAM: Socially awkward or active?

Someone with a huge conflict of interest in MLB actually writing in an unbiased manner?  Quite impressive.

For my part, I was happy when MLBAM finally had the “embed” option to its videos.