THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Wednesday, February 08, 2012

MGL: Today on Clubhouse Confidential

I’ll be home in time to catch him on the 7:30pm broadcast.  Should be fun!

UPDATE:

Saturday, February 04, 2012

Bill James Baseball IQ app

I downloaded Bill James Baseball IQ onto my iphone (I don’t think it is available on droid phones, but I’m not sure). Here is the web site for the app on Acta Sports:

http://www.actasports.com/titles/bill_james_baseball_iq_app/

It is pretty cool. You can read a description and see some screen captures on the above site, but basically it allows you to see heat maps and color maps of batters and pitchers (in all combinations, counts, situations, etc.) for K zone, batted balls, pitch type, etc.

Best of all, the app is free! Seems to me that they could have charged for this one, but I know nothing about the best way to make money from apps. It also seems like they could use these graphics more often on TV broadcasts.

Anyway, give it a try and see what you think…

Friday, February 03, 2012

Illusion of numbers

It’s not that RBIs are ”wrong”, it’s that the context is missing.  Wins for pitchers aren’t wrong.  But, the attribution pretends that the hitters, bullpen, and fielding is absorbed by the pitcher.

Sabermetrics is about the hidden game of numbers.  It’s trying to give context, meaning to those numbers.

Numbers, that stand there by themselves, are meaningless, as surely as words strung together have no meaning without understanding the rules.

When I read that blog post above, I see someone who looks at the surface, sees some heads bobbing out of the water.  But how can you tell which is Jessica Alba and which is not?  You need to dive into the water, and that’s what sabermetrics does.  You can swin along and not drown, or you can just wait for us to drain the water out of the pool.

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

USA Today owns Baseball-Reference?

They bought Big Lead Sports and Fantasy Sports Ventures.  And Sean’s site is (partly) owned by FSV.  So, congrats to Sean!

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Social Experiments: failing Journalism 101

Wonderful, just wonderful.

This guy created a false rumor, to see how quickly a journalist would report it without any fact-checking.  Of course, the journalist ends up shifting blame to the other guy.

Monday, January 16, 2012

Clubhouse Confidential

Brian Kenny is turning into a saberist’s best friend.  He has had Vince Gennaro, Joe Sheehan, Jay Jaffe, among others, and all have contributed positively.  Now, it’s Dave Cameron’s turn on the hot seat.

Sunday, January 15, 2012

The MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference is coming!

It is time, once again, for the Sloan MIT Sports Analytics Conference! The only requirement to attend is that you must be able to type the word “analytics” in one second or less. Just kidding. Here is the official web site:

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/

The dates are March 2-3, in Boston of course.

It is a little pricey (if you are a current student anywhere, it is a steal), but if you are serious about your sports analytics, you want to stump for a job with a team, or you want to meet some truly interesting and sometimes brilliant personalities, you should seriously consider attending. There might even be an MGL sighting in the audience.

This is the Super Bowl of Sports Analytics conferences and is a veritable who’s who in the sports analysis and sports world.

Here are some of the speakers:

Bill James
Mark Cuban
Mark Shapiro
Jeff Luhnow
Darrel Morey
John Hollinger
Scott Boras
Bill Simmons

And more…

Friday, January 13, 2012

Difference between someone who loves baseball and a Holy Writer?

A Holy Writer decries how performances are synthesized into cold hard numbers, while in a bitter taste of irony, they themselves often REFER to some of those cold hard numbers.  For example: if you get a shutout in Game 7, REGARDLESS of HOW the pitcher managed to get a shutout, is all that matters.

Someone who loves baseball will go back and watch the entire game, and shows how you should NOT TRUST THE NUMBERS, and instead, appreciate how the narrative could have easily changed, if not for one play.

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Is MLB still draconian?

The NHL not only tolerates YouTube, but they EMBRACE it with their own YouTube channel.  And the video is really high quality.  They have plays of the night, plays of the week.  Whatever you want.  NHL.com has 5-minute recaps of every game.  Fans post NHL highlights, and they are still there.  I mean, here’s Quebec v Montreal, and you see Guy Lafleur without his helmet.  That one was uploaded Aug, 2011.  Here’s one uploaded two years ago about the 1986 Roy/Rangers series.  It’s when he made his legend.

Now Grant Brisbee (who I must say is one of my favorite bloggers) is suggesting that MLB has an archaic policy, especially since you can’t see the uploaded videos anywhere on MLB.com or purchase it from MLB.  Now, I linked to a Raines video just yesterday, and we’ll see if it comes down soon enough.  In my view, it’s more of an archaeological dig.  You watch that Raines video, and it does nothing but GOOD for MLB.

I understand that you can argue copyright, yada yada yada.  There are always two sides to every story.  The NHL has chosen the fan-friendly side.  MLB is in the EXACT same position as NHL.  They are in the same business.  They have the same history.  They have the same passionate fans.  Everything is really the same. 

MLB has come around recently, with allowing us to EMBED videos in blog posts.  Again, they had two sides to the story, with one being they want to force people to come to MLB.com to watch the video, and the other as using it as a loss-leader, to try to attract even more fans to come over.  It’s a 51/49 argument.  They FINALLY chose the 51 argument (i.e., fan-friendly).

Back in the 1990s, the “casual friday” was all the rage… except at my company.  I knew EXACTLY the arguments: professionalism v employee-friendly.  It was the same 51-49 argument.  When I asked upper management, they gave me the professionalism line.  ONE MONTH LATER, they decided to allow casual friday, citing employee-friendliness.  You can literally justify any choice, and look reasonable doing so.  The reality is that most choices are 51-49 choices.  It makes no sense to make it seem like a 100-0 choice, when you can easily change your mind a month later.

Think of Jack Morris v Dennis Martinez.  Those favoring Morris in will only cite the good things, while those favoring Martinez out will cite the bad things.  It’s all very political, turning a 51-49 situation into a 100-0 situation.

It’s a foregone conclusion that MLB will relent here, if they haven’t already.  It’s a 51-49 choice, and the deciding factor always ends up being the one that makes people the happiest.  That’s the tie-breaker.

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Make Holy Writers publish their ballots

Amen.

If they get to report on the news they create, shouldn’t they declare how they contributed to that news?

Poz: National Sportswriter of the Year

Wonderful news!

Friday, December 30, 2011

Quotes of 2011

And David Laurilia got them all himself.  Well done!

Thursday, December 29, 2011

Eric Nusbaum will earn our BBWAA ulcers

I’ve been looking for a guy like this.

It’s not lost on me that if the Hall of Fame stakes weren’t there, the Tim Raines appreciation society might not get the same amount of public attention. But that’s exactly the problem. Instead of appreciating baseball for all it offers and enjoying its stars for all they give us—which really is so much—we chose to give ourselves ulcers over the injustices committed by the BBWAA.
...
Whining and whispering about which names on the Hall of Fame ballot may have used steroids is a new annual tradition. It’s not likely to go away anytime soon because Hall of Fame voters are losing a grip on the only world that they control — that world of illusions comprised of discarded Gold Glove trophies and dusty Hall of Fame plaques. In their world, morality consists of things like “clutchness” and “being a class act.” It also consists of not hitting home runs between say 1997 and the present because doing so makes you suspicious and suspicions are like fog and fog makes it harder to see.

I cede the floor to you Mr. Nusbaum, and any future ulcers.  You are both a gifted writer, and a fan of baseball, exactly the kind of person who should be part of the solution. 

Most inconsistent HOF ballot this year?

This blogger points out that Barry Bloom manages to include Rafael Palmeiro, Mark McGwire and Fred McGriff on his ballot (all of which are justifiable to some extent), but Bloom is trying to argue that Jeff Bagwell does not belong with those guys, because he compares most favorably to… Steve Garvey?  Well, if you strip out the huge HR and huge walk advantage, then, yeah, sure, maybe.

***

I like what Posnanski said the other day about his HOF voting, where one year he will vote for a guy on a ballot, and another year he won’t.  And it’s not because the player did anything new (obviously he didn’t) but because Poz is looking at the evidence in a new way, a way he hadn’t considered.

So, let’s hope that Bloom will take the same approach next year, start Bagwell with a clean slate, and maybe he will come to see Bagwell as one of the greatest hitters of his generation.  Unless of course Bagwell gets his deserved enshrinement this year.

***

And don’t get me started on the voter who wouldn’t vote for Raines and his 808 steals because right behind him is Vince Coleman and his 752 steals.  Ok, you got me started.  As I noted a few years back:

The biggest debates for me were Tim Raines, who obviously was overshadowed by Rickey Henderson, but also if you take Vince Coleman’s five top years, I would say he outperformed Raines, too, and I don’t see Coleman as a Hall of Famer.
— Tracy Ringolsby

FACT

Just for fun, I took Coleman’s 5 best years. They were hard to find, but I settled on this: 85, 87, 89, 90, 92. That totaled 2818 PA. (If you prefer different seasons, let me know. ) I looked for Raines worst years (which includes alot of abbreviated seasons) to match that total. I came up with these years: 79, 80, 82, 91, 94, 96, 98, 99, 02. The total of Raines’ worst years was 2820 PA. Ok, so we have two partial careers of exactly the same length (in plate appearances), one for the guy at his best, and the other for the guy at his worst. Coleman outscored Raines, by 25 runs. Raines outRBIed Coleman by 78. Raines also did that while using up 99 less outs.

The batting line:
0.275 0.337 0.355 Coleman
0.266 0.363 0.371 Raines

Raines, at his very worst, is better than Coleman at his very best.

I believe Ringolsby has seen the light, putting Raines on his ballot this year.  So, it is possible to look at the same data in a new way, and be convinced that you were originally wrong.  Congratulations to Ringolsby!  Maybe that other voter who saw Raines and Coleman in the same boat will also see the light.

Friday, December 23, 2011

Clubhouse Confidential - Glossary

Good stuff!

There are some tiny mistakes, and I’ll email Kenny tonight about it.  A couple like (IP/9) * BB should be BB / (IP/9)… that is BB per 9 innings.  Or “BABIP can used for hitters as well as pitchers. “ when really it should be “mostly for pitchers, and somewhat for hitters”.  In FIP, the “/IP” should apply to the whole thing, which is obvious of course, and no one would do it otherwise.  UZR is MGL not Fangraphs.

Other than those little nits aside, a fantastic job really of explaining it as simply as possible. I was impressed with the wOBA explanation.  Whoever on Kenny’s team worked on this: great job!

Glove-slap: NaOH

Monday, December 19, 2011

Speculations and suspicions: The Yu Darvish Story, Jeff Bagwell, and being a sports “reporter”

Seems all that note-passing in the 7th grade is finally paying off for all concerned.

Friday, December 16, 2011

MLB Network oddball videos

These are my favorites.  My second favorite is the best-fielding plays.  Give me those two, and I’ll be sitting in front of channel 790 all day. 

The one shocking one that I saw, was a game with Pascual Perez, where he was standing on the very edge (or even outside) of the batter’s box, and the Padres pitchers were throwing at him… all 4 times he was at bat.  It was rather revolting, not to mention cowardly on the pitchers’ part.  It’s one thing for players to self-police, but it’s another when it’s a tit-for-tat kind of situation, where one side gets to throw a punch (via throwing a baseball), while the other guy’s defense is to run away (via trying to avoid getting hit by a moving pitch).  And then, his response is to do the same, or, have everyone get into a brawl.

What is a better way to avoid beanball wars?  And please, don’t dismiss others’ ideas as being unworkable.  This is a brainstorming session.  All voices will be heard.

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Six members of the BBWAA suspected of plagiarism, but allowed to vote for Hall of Fame!

Or so The Common Man suspects.

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Supporting the eye-test?

Brian Kenny:

And the idea too, this is always puzzling to me, is that the baseball writers are on the beat, watching every game, so even if they’re not doing the statistical analysis that one of us would do, at least they’re watching the player every game.

Well, if you’re watching Keith Hernandez or Dwight Evans, shouldn’t you be appreciating that defense that was so obvious? It was so obvious that no one ran on their arms, that they changed games with their defensive play, that they were simply among the greatest players ever to play their position.

And yet it’s those writers who wouldn’t give them enough support to keep them on the ballot

Monday, December 12, 2011

This year’s contender for sanctimonious eloquence

Plaschke.  I’m ok for Plaschke calling Braun a hypocrite, if that eventually is proven to be true.  But, the rest of it?  The Holy Writers strike again.  (No offense to Ben, and Dave, and the other guys who are part of this organization.)

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