THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Astros hire Mike Fast

It obviously took way too long to hire him, but someone finally did.  Congratulations to Mike, and Jeff, and Sig. 

Friday, January 13, 2012

SABR + Bloomberg + Fangraphs in Phoenix

Check it out.

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Teams are given budgets

So says Alex Anthopoulos:

“I have a number where they’d like me to stay in an area,” he says of the budget. “If we want to go above and beyond, there’s a conversation that has to take place, and that’s me with Paul first, and if it’s going to go past Paul, then it goes to Nadir and so on.”

“We’re sitting in the high 80s right now,” he adds, referring to his payroll, in terms of millions.

Thursday, January 05, 2012

Psst… wanna work for the Cardinals?

This has been a great off-season for the job-hunters.  Now, it’s the Cardinals’ turn:

Web Developer
Database Programmer/Analyst

Zambrano v Volstad

Performance-expectation-wise, let’s call it even.  So, this is strictly a financial discussion, to make sure it all works out evenly.

Cubs were originally on the hook for 18MM$.  Now, they are on the hook for 15MM$, plus whatever Volstad costs them, which is probably 9MM$ over the next 3 years.  So, they spend an extra 6MM$ to turn Zambrano into Volstad this year, AND the next two years.  That sounds like a pretty good deal, as paying for two more years of Zambrano (sans headache), or someone of his performance level, in 2013-14 would have likely run the Cubs 10MM$.

Marlins were on the hook for 9MM$ for Volstad (though they could cut him after each season naturally), but now they are on the hook for Zambrano for 3MM$ (and they can cut him loose right after).  If Z pitches like Volstad over the next 3 years, it’ll cost them 13MM$ (3MM$ for this year, and say 2/10 for Z or someone like him, sans headache).  Instead of 9MM$.

So, it looks like the Cubs get a 4MM$ surplus in the deal, but, perhaps Z is better than we’re suggesting.  Throw-in the headache effect, and the Cubs looked like they cost as good as they could possibly get here, in terms of flipping one pitcher for another pitcher.

Wednesday, January 04, 2012

When the Bible is no longer the Bible

One day, The Sporting News was considered baseball’s bible.  How the mightly have fallen:

Headline: Astros’ new GM adds stats guru, ex-cheerleader to staff

Next time someone hires me, you can put:

Blank adds ex-warehouse shipping guy to staff

My first job outside the family business, I worked in the warehouse unloading trucks of retail goods.  I was 18 years old, and weighed under 100 pounds.  I was VERY thin.  I gained 15 pounds that summer, as I ate everything I could find, because I was completely sapped of my energy every day.  I never worked as hard as I did that summer, outlasting all the other summer kids, all of whom weighed much more than I did.  So, I’ll take that headline as a badge of honor.

Similarly, I presume being a cheerleader is extremely hard work and requires a great deal of dedication. 

Sunday, January 01, 2012

San Jose: Oakland v San Francisco

I am not following the various issues over the past few years.  Chass summarizes it as:

The Giants’ position on San Jose is untenable. Although they have refused to acknowledge it, San Jose is part of their constitutionally (baseball) protected area because Walter Haas Jr., the A’s owner, agreed to cede it to them in 1990 before which both teams shared the territory.

Haas made his magnanimous gesture because the Giants were struggling in San Francisco, as the A’s are now in Oakland, and wanted to move to Santa Clara. Now the Giants selfishly hold tightly to the territory, refusing even to concede that they have no legitimate right to it.

Whether Chass represents the situation accurately or not, it seems to me that all the A’s are asking (or could be asking) for is a “land swap”.  Let them move to San Jose, and they can cede control of Oakland to San Francisco.  Basically, there’s a deal to be done here where you have a fair swap.  So, exactly what is the hold up?

Saturday, December 31, 2011

Homegrown Teams

Nice idea.  Mariners drafted very well.

Glove-slap: Primer.

Thursday, December 29, 2011

Wanna work for the Astros?

Many of you are familiar with the new GM of the Astros, Jeff Luhnow. A week or so ago, I linked to his recent chat on one of the Astros Fan sites. Jeff is highly intelligent, innovative, and a great all-around guy. I imagine that the Astros are going to be an exciting organization to work for.

If you are interested in a database/IT job with the ‘Stros, here is a link to their job offering:

http://baseballjobs.teamworkonline.com/teamwork/r.cfm?i=41068

I’m guessing that it will be sabermetric oriented, among other things. If you apply, tell them you heard about it from The Book/MGL.

Murray Chass: Selig’s Bud, Stan Kasten, is the favored new Dodgers owner

Chass’s opinion.

Psst… wanna work at MLBAM?

Plenty of opportunities.  Here are some tech jobs, but there’s plenty of other areas if you are looking for a non-tech job.

Oracle DBA
Tech Project Manager
UNIX sys admin
UI Technical Architect

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Irresistible patience meets immovable impatience

As Crashburn and Colin point out, Madson held out too long, and the Phillies jumped the gun too fast, and both end up the losers.

Great perspective guys!

From the mother’s basement, to the “sabermetricians upstairs”

Thank you Mike Matheny!

Matheny told the @ITDMorningAfter he’s been gathering info from the “sabermetricians upstairs.” It truly is a new era.

***

“If they know us, they won’t vote against us” —Sean Penn as Harvey Milk

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Psst… wanna intern for the Orioles?

Tell ‘em you heard it from Tango.  What follows below is the actual posting.

============================================
“The Baltimore Orioles are looking to hire a Baseball Analytics intern to work in our Baseball Operations Department. This individual will report to the Assistant Scouting Director and the Coordinator of Baseball Analytics.

Read More

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Market forces v Central Planning

Great stuff on the promotion/relegation system versus USA/Canada system.

If we look to Europe, though, we might see a better approach. To understand it, let’s consider the arguments of Frederich Hayek, who argued that a centrally planned economy can’t work as well as a free market one because the central planner could never have enough information to make adequate decisions. OK, but what does this have to do with sports?

Essentially, North American sports leagues use central planners to determine the location of sports teams. In contrast, European sports leagues rely on the market.
...
If these owners were ever successful, then essentially American owners would be exporting central planning to a market-oriented industry in Europe.

Monday, December 19, 2011

A great online chat with the new Astros GM!

http://houston.astros.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111219&content_id=26202260&vkey=news_hou&c_id=hou

Jeff Luhnow, the new Astros GM, is a great, smart guy who is all about using all available resources to build and maintain a successful franchise.  As well, he is very fan friendly, as you can see from this chat.

Astros fans should be very excited.

When asked in the chat about web sites he frequents, this blog was mentioned along with BP and THT, so we know that he has great taste in baseball blogs!

Saturday, December 17, 2011

Too much is made of camaraderie and chemistry and all that stuff

So says Bob Gibson:

Too much is made of camaraderie and chemistry and all that stuff. I don’t need a teammate that I love. Give me one who can play.

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

New rules in MLB

Unfortunately, most of the rules are not playing rule changes.  Those that are:

increases punishments for slow-moving hitters and pitchers, raising pace-of-game fines up to $10,000 each for the sixth violation and beyond.

That’s pretty much it.  Possible changes in the replay rule to be expanded.  No word on the “double-to-out” (or vice versa) if the ball is hit near the top of the wall has been clarified or not.

The rest of the rule changes have nothing to do with the actual game of baseball, but with the business of baseball, like not allowing changes to uniform numbers, unless advised well in advance.  So, a guy gets traded, and wants to keep his number, and “buy out” his younger teammates’ number?  Well, there’s going to be a time lag there.  Players appealing scoring plays to the official scorer?  Now, there’s a protocol to follow.  Inter-league games limited to a maximum of 20 (I guess to ensure it’s AL v NL, and not American Conference v National Conference, like the other sports have, which is 20% to 25% of their games between conferences).

I would have loved to see something done about the mid-inning relief change, something as simple as any mid-inning relief change starts the batter at 2-0.  Or, if you want to make it more progressive, make the first one at 1-0, the second at 2-0, and all subsequent mid-inning changes in the game at 3-0.

MLB really moves at a glacial pace in terms of game-changes, but is very fast in terms of business-changes.

Monday, December 12, 2011

Jeff Luhnow, blogger-friendly

The Astros blogs are looking into Jeff’s past, and they like what they see.

Saturday, December 10, 2011

Inside the Friedman/Moore negotiations

This is a fictionalized account, like Law & Order, but for sabremetrics.

{tchungh tchungh}

Friedman: Matt, we both know you are one of the best young pitchers in baseball, just behind Kershaw and Strasburg.  So, we want to give you a long-term deal.

Moore: After 2 starts?  Cool.

F: Now, as you know in baseball, for the first three years, we don’t have to give you much more than the league minimum.  For example, Jonathan Papelbon earned close to 1.5MM$ for the first three years before he was arbitration-eligible.

M: Hmmm… right, and since he went year-to-year, I’d have to give you a discount, right?

F: Right, I’m thinking 20%?  So, how about we give you, today, a guaranteed 1.2MM$ deal for 3 years… even if you don’t pitch at all!

M: That sounds good.  How about a fourth year? 

F: Well, your first arbitration eligible year, if you were pitching as good as Verlander, Felix, JJ, and Weaver, that would cost us 3.5MM$ to 4MM$.

M: Right, but I guess I have to give you a discount right?  Especially since I might not even be pitching?

F: Exactly.  I’m thinking, I dunno, 30%?  So, how about I give you, today, 2.8MM$ for that year.  There’s a decent chance your arm will even be blown by then.

M: Ok, so that’s 4 years for 4MM$, guaranteed?  We’re on a roll.  How about a fifth year?

F: In that case, the second-year of arbitration eligibility for that gang of four was around 7.5MM$ to 8MM$. 

M: I know the drill.  40% discount right?  Good chance I won’t be pitching?

F: You’re getting good at this.  So, that’s about 5MM$.  We’re at a guaranteed 9MM$ for 5 years.

M: And my last arbitration year?  Since the gang of 4 gets 13-15MM$ for that sixth year, I can give you 50% off, so just guarantee me 7MM$ for that year and we’ve got a deal.

F: Well, I don’t want to guarantee that one.  How about we do a team option?

M: How’s that going to work?

F: Well, I will give you 1MM$ right now, if you give me the option of paying you at price higher than you expected.  So, if we exercise the option, we’ll pay you 8MM$, plus the 1MM$ guarantee.  If we don’t exercise the option, you keep that 1MM$.

M: Hmmm… that only makes sense if there’s an 75% chance that you will exercise, right?  75% of 8MM, plus the 1MM is 7MM.  Sounds a bit low, but I’ll take it.

F: Let’s keep going.  How about the first two years of free agency?  You know the big guys gets 20-25MM$ a year.  You give me a 60% discount on the first year and 70% discount on the second.  So, guaranteed, that would be 15MM$ for the two years total.  But, I like team options.

M: Ok, I think I can do this one.  You give me 4MM$, and I’ll give you two team options.  For each one, you pay me 8MM$ if you exercise the options.

F: That sounds good.  If we don’t exercise, you get 4MM$.  If we do exercise, you get the 4MM plus another 16MM for a total of 20MM$.  Since you said those years are worth 15MM$, that sounds fair.

M: Right.  If there’s a 68.75% chance of you exercising, then it’s fair.  That’s .6875 of 16MM, plus the 4MM, that gives us 15MM.  Ok, Andrew, I’ve had enough of this!

F: Me too.  Let’s tally it up.  Ok, the first 5 years, that was guaranteed for 9MM$.  Then the three team options are going to cost me 1 + 2 + 2 for 5MM$.  That’s 14MM$ guaranteed total for the 5 years.  The 3 team options, if exercised, will give you 7 + 8 + 8 = 23MM$.  Add that to the 14MM$ guaranteed, and you can earn 37MM$.

M: Done.