THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Thursday, March 22, 2012

Is there a Redsox/Yankee variable in bullpen-to-starter moves?

A few years ago, it was Papelbon, and now it’s Bard.  You had Joba.  Poor Phil Hughes.  Can we blame the media scrutiny?

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Blogger Chass on the NY Times reporting of the Picard/Mets case

Great stuff from Chass, and he’s a tried-and-true cynical blogger by going after the NY Times.  Most bloggers don’t realize that Murray Chass is their future. Deal with it.

Monday, March 19, 2012

SABR Analytics wrap-up

For those who want a wrap-up:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/3/19/2883451/sabr-analytics-conference-its-a-wrap

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Encroaching on your competitor’s space

Back in 1982, the Devils moved to NJ, and as the late owner’s son describes it:

It was pretty complicated to move the team here because of the indemnification. They had to indemnify the Rangers, Islanders and Flyers. As I understand, the NHL had a finance committee that arrived at that payment schedule ($12.5 million) to the three teams because we came into their media territory

I didn’t realize that the Flyers were part of that deal. 

Another interesting one was when the NHL expanded in the south in 1992.  The standard exapansion fee at the time was 50MM$.  That’s what the Lightning paid.  Anaheim also paid the 50MM$, but half of that went to the Kings.  So, Anaheim technically paid just 25MM$ in expansion fees, and another 25MM$ for the territorial fees.  Basically, the NHL wanted to get it done, and they wanted to pave the way for Disney to get into the league, and they wanted to make sure the Gretzky-fueled hysteria was capitalized down south.  Anaheim paid 0 in territorial fees, and the rest of the league decided to indemnify the Kings instead, just to have a happy family.

This is a far cry from the Giants/A’s situation.

David Samson

He seems to be disliked in a few cities.

Rick Peterson

This is a blind post.  I can’t read the article from the office, but I hope it’s good enough to share.

Friday, March 09, 2012

Holster that weapon?

Seems some people want to keep it intact, and otherwise want to do away with it.

As long as kids can buy nerf pistols, I don’t know that seeing a six shooter on a jersey is a big deal.

And, if MLB wants to take action, focus on Chief Wahoo caricature first.

Thursday, March 08, 2012

“If you can play, you can play”

I love how the pro leagues are taking the strong initiative here.  I’d like to see some friendly competition here between the leagues, trying to outdo each other.

Background:

“I think from everyone we’ve talked to, it’s pretty clear that when the first NHL player is ready to come out, he’s going to be getting a lot of love,” Patrick said.

Friday, March 02, 2012

Mrs. Dirk Hayhurst

Her story:

Hitting isn’t easy, and neither are relationships. My husband and I face some unique obstacles now that I’m a player’s wife; bad outings, high ERA’s, slumps, losses and injuries. Regardless of what it is, I know we’ll able to handle it because, just like in baseball, big challenges are overcome by sticking to the simple, solid fundamentals. And as long as we focus on the fundamentals that define our love, I know we can handle whatever life throws at us.

The solution to dealing with a high ERA is to look at his FIP.  Just keep pounding that into his head when runs are crossing the plate, due to no fault of him.

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Play-in game is a go

Yes, yes, if this was last year, we wouldn’t have had that thrilling day.  Get over it.  If last year was 40 years ago, we wouldn’t have had that thrilling day either.  Get over it.  Things just happened to work out the way they did, and things will work out again into something new.  Look forward to it.

***

A play-in game is NOT a playoff game.  There won’t be 10 teams in the playoffs, but 8 teams.  The 6 divison winners still have the same chance of winning the World Series, regardless of who that 4th playoff team in their league happens to be (more or less, anyway).  It’s not like they went from 1/4 to 1/5 chance of winning in 2012.  It’s STILL 1/4 for the division winners.

Simply consider the play-in game as game #163, that presumes the two teams playing were tied for that last spot, just as we’ve seen a few times in the last few years.  Great games, I might add. 

If you need to express yourself as part of your 5 stages, to get over your grief, don’t let me stop you.  But, try to do it in one post at the speed of Homer Simpson.  Don’t drag us along into multiple posts.

Friday, February 17, 2012

When is it a partnership and when is it a competition?

Marc asks if having more sports teams would help or hurt the Mariners.

We can even think more locally.  Are you better off having a restaurant as part of the strip of a whole bunch of other restaurants, or are you better off being the only place in town?  Out of sight, out of mind?  Or exclusively located?

Sunday, February 12, 2012

Dan Kantrovitz, ex-player, now scouting director of Cards

He got that game, which is more than most.  And now, he’s in charge.

Glove-slap: Kevin.

Saturday, February 11, 2012

Why do players get crappy caps?

Brandon McCarthy is asking on behalf of most players:

The hats: Really scraping the bottom of the barrel here, but I think this is the most common complaint. MLB issues these spring training hats that are pretty universally hated. They usually have a silly line(s) on them so they’re different from the regular season hats, and the material feels like a wet dish rag if you sweat in them (which you will). Every day that you put them on, you get the same sad feeling Ralphie got in A Christmas Story when he’s wearing the footed pajamas.

Thursday, February 09, 2012

Psst… wanna intern in Canada?

Not for the Expos, but the next best thing: the Jays.  The one you want is probably “Intern - Baseball Operations”, but there are a few other non-tech jobs if you prefer those.

Tell ‘em you heard it from Tango, and it will help.

Tuesday, February 07, 2012

Bronx Parking

I didn’t realize how few people actually parked when going to a Yankees game.

Thursday, February 02, 2012

Casey Kotchman line

Kotchman’s last four teams: Redsox, Mariners, Rays, Indians.  Can we say that a team that signs Kotchman is saber-leaning?

What other players have played for at least three teams over a four season period, and we can say was only given a shot because of the saber-tendency of team management?

Wednesday, February 01, 2012

Knowing enough about numbers to be dangerous

Ben takes a look at how Scott Boras is a baseball pitchman (no pun intended), framing things in ridiculous ways, to make a point that he hopes knowing spends more than 2 minutes trying to think through.  Alot like a politician, actually.

There were 137 teams from 2001-2011 with a Boras-approved closer, so I played around with the statistical cutoffs for second basemen until I came up with a group of similar size. Over the same span, 128 teams had a second baseman with at least eight home runs, an OBP of at least .315, and at least 500 plate appearances. You know, the famous 8-.315-500 club. And guess what? Teams with a second baseman meeting that description went .522. All others went .483.

Monday, January 30, 2012

Marcel Team Standings Forecasts, unofficial

I don’t know where these Marcels come from, but it’s not from me.  That said, since I’ve published the formula, it wouldn’t be hard at all to try to recreate them.

One thing I did want to talk about is the “play-in” game for the Wild Card.  As far as I’m concerned, since teams 4 and teams 5 will play only amongst themselves, to have the chance to play for the final 4th spot in the playoffs, I do NOT consider that we have 5 teams in the playoffs, but 4.

Now, how far would I go with this idea?  If let’s say we had 12 teams qualify post-regular season, with the first 4 teams having a bye, and then the next 8 teams playing amongst themselves for the final 4 spots, what would I do?

I think I would do the same thing.  That those 8 teams each earned “half a spot” for the playoffs.  You have to make a distinction between teams who get a bye from those who don’t.

Friday, January 27, 2012

Relocated Team Doctrine v Stationary Team Doctrine

Great post:

Dale Hawerchuk was born in Toronto and played major junior in Montreal. He was drafted by Winnipeg, where he set records for nine years, and then traded to Buffalo. He skated briefly in St. Louis, ended his playing career in Philadelphia, and now coaches in Barrie. And yet it is only in an arena in Arizona that his number 10 hangs, retired, over the ice.
...
The solution to this is (like the Japanese answer to the paradox of Theseus’ ship) to assert that the essence of the team is in its form and its function rather than its substance. A team is not what it is but what it does, defined not by the specific people or buildings or shirts that it uses but by its position in a system of social relations. And in the case of a team, that position is inextricably and fundamentally linked to a place.

Now, I wouldn’t necessarily tie it to a place.  After all, if the Jets move from Long Island to NJ (or wherever they came from), that’s not a new thread.  What matters is the fan base.  Did the fan base follow the team, or not?  If so, link them.  If not, sever them.

So, you do this on a case-by-case basis, and thinking like an historian, and not trying to fit things into simple slots with simple rules.  Rules of thumb by definition don’t work all the time.

Did Jets fans follow the Coyotes?  Did they abandon the Coyotes when the new Jets arrived?

There’s no doubt that this applies to the Expos/Nationals:

Surely, a team that has to move is a black eye for the League, but a team that simply ceased to exist would be two black eyes, a broken nose, and a kick in the nuts. Because of this Doctrine, the NHL can say that it has not ‘lost’ a franchise since WWII killed off the New York Americans. Every other failed team has been bought or merged elsewhere, and every time that happens, the NHL manages to avoid taking direct responsibility for an unjustified or unstable overexpansion.

I don’t know how the Dodgers and Giants moving cross-country should be handled.  What we need is an understanding of their fan bases, and what happened after the Mets showed up.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Psst… wanna work for Trackman?

Internship.

Hi Tom - We are hiring an intern for the 2012 season.  Our last intern heard about the job on your blog and we have since hired him on full-time.  If you have time and see fit for posting this link, I would be grateful.  We got outstanding candidates referred by the ITB blog last time.