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MLB_Management
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
By , 05:55 AM
I’d love to be a fly on the wall during a team meeting about a certain pitcher. Unfortunately, I’d be quickly squashed under a fly swatter after either laughing hysterically or throwing up all over the wall.
Seriously, how do you think the discussion goes?
Milwaukee is a supposedly sabermetrically-inclined team (I have my doubts about that). They just sent Bush down to the minors. Here are his last 4 years NERC’s (normalized component ERA - 4.00 is an average starter), as a starter:
04 3.61
05 4.44
06 3.42
07 4.47
I hate to even break it down by year because it is a goofy odd/even pattern, which is most likely meaningless. Ignoring the goofy pattern, if you can (a lot of people just HAVE to see “reasons” in random patterns), those are the numbers of a solid #3 starter. Really solid. There are probably a hundred worse starters in baseball right now, and 300 worse pitchers.
But this guy gets sent down to the minors. On a team that is clearly in contention. Do they have any idea that he has been a decent to good major league starter for over 4 years now? Did he lose his velocity or break into the clubhouse kitchen and steal some sodas?
Seriously, how can a half billion dollar business not be able to recognize that one of their employees is and has been for many years as solid as you can get without being a star. There is NOTHING in his performance record that indicates that he is anything but.
Even this year, in 76 TBF (that is as far as my current database goes - he might have more), he has not “pitched” badly. 4.87 NERC. There are tons of good and great pitcher with worse NERC’s than that so far. His K rate is good - right around career norms. His HR rate is actually stingy. His singles rate is high, which is even more luck driven than BABIP. In any case, we are only talking about 20 IP or so - who cares what his numbers are in that many innings. It should make almost no difference whatsoever. If it did, then Bonderman, Bucholz, Buehrle, Burnett, Byrd, Garland, Oswalt, and about 50 other starters would all have to be sent down too. Did he all of sudden forget how to pitch in the last 20 innings?
Oh, yeah, his ERA is 6.75 and he is 0-3. Hey, maybe that is what they talk about in those meetings. A pitcher’s w/l record and his ERA.
Pitiful. Absolutely pitiful.
Sunday, April 27, 2008
By , 07:07 AM
Here is what I did. I compared my pitcher projections, which are pretty good in the aggregate, with actual pitching performance, for each year, 2003-2007. I did this only for pitchers who changed teams from the year before to the year in the study, but stayed in the same league. IOW, for all pitchers in 2003, only those who switched teams from 02 to 03 were included. For 2007, only pitchers who switched teams from 06 to 07 were included. Etc.
The metric I used for my projections and for actual performance was my context neutral normalized component ERA (NERC), where 4.00 is defined as league average.
The presumption is that if the actual NERC for all the pitchers who came to the Braves is less than their collective projected NERC, then the Braves pitching coach (or something else about the Braves team or the move itself) did something to improve these pitchers’ performance. I realize that this is a shaky assumption, but the numbers are quite interesting.
The average NERC for all pitchers who switched teams was 4.29 after the switch (4.32 in the NL and 4.22 in the AL). These are likely older pitchers or those who had a bad prior year (in general, players who switch teams tend to be both older, a little bad, and a little unlucky). Their average projection was 4.16 (4.22 NL and 4.06 AL). The reason their projection was lower than their performance was probably because they are a little old. In fact, the average age of these pitchers was 31.4 (31.5 and 31.3).
The numbers you see in the first column represent the difference between projected and actual plus the .13 runs we expect for every team. A plus number means the move helped the pitcher (the NEW pitching coach was GOOD) and a negative number means the move hurt the pitcher (the NEW pitching coach was BAD). The second column represents the gain or loss from the OLD team. If all the pitchers that LEFT a team lost some NERC when going to their new team, the new team gets credit, and the old team gets docked. Comparing the 2 columns is a little bit (maybe a lot) of a check on the validity of the assumption. In other words, if pitchers going to a team are helped and when they leave the same team, they get worse, maybe there is something to that team’s pitching coach or the team itself. Before you look at the list, think about which pitching coaches/teams you think are good with their pitchers and which you think are bad.
Also, I used the entire 5 year period for all teams. Obviously pitching coaches on some teams have turned over during that time period. With no further ado:
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Thursday, April 17, 2008
Rule changes, as we’ve previously discussed.
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Incredibly, MLB.tv has decided to stop the condensed game feature, but also decide to remove them from the archives!
>Where are the condensed games? I saw them this winter when I first subscribe the the TV package, now I cannot find them.
Dear Fan:
Thank you for your email. We apologize for the difficulty you experienced in reaching us. I am sorry to inform you but we are not offering the condense games feature.
>As a compromise, may I suggest that links be provided to condensed games from 2006 and 2007 that have been archived?
Unfortunately we are not able to provide the 2006 and 2007 condense games. I would like to apologize for any inconvenience this may have cause you.
A fan site that will actually pay you in real dollars? It’s true. Tell ‘em “I heard it from Tango”. I don’t know if that’ll help, but maybe that gets you an extra hard look. Rally/Angels, Justin/Reds, Beamer/Braves, Patriot/Indians, et al… this would be perfect for you guys.
I am seeking writers to write for the FanGraphs blog. These are paid, part-time positions. Before you apply, ask yourself the following questions:
-Are you knowledgeable about the stats on FanGraphs?
-Are you an independent worker and can you edit your own posts?
-Are you available to post at least 1 post a day, especially on weekdays?
Please send any past work you have written on baseball and any links to your own blog or blogs you have contributed to.
There may be a three week trial period to show that you are “right for the job” before you get paid, depending on your current experience and track record.
Thursday, April 03, 2008
I was intrigued by this post:
Aside from the local media, who are about the worst I’ve seen, management of the team has not improved much under Krivsky. And I don’t mean player management, I mean day-to-day management of a ballclub. I mean promising season-ticket holders first crack at buying extra single-game tickets (such as for the Red Sox series this year), but then opening the sales to everyone, and letting the scalpers take them all.
I mean holding a special “come watch batting practice at GABP” the Sunday before Opening Day, but then not allowing anyone to sit in the outfield. Seriously, ushers prevented anyone from going into the bleachers and catching homeruns. They didn’t sell beer. They gave away hot dogs for free, and cans of pop, but all they had was Diet Pepsi and they had nowhere to recycle the cans.
Speaking of groaning at bunting, the decorative bunting in the stadium was pathetic. It consisted of about 20 half-moons, each about 6 feet long. That’s all. For the entire stadium. When I saw it during the BP fiasco, I said “that can’t be the decorations for tomorrow. That looks like the remains of whatever survived the winter, whatever is still up from the last day of the season.” Nope. Came back the next day, that’s all there was, 20 pieces of bunting.
The bunting may a fitting metaphor for the team. Whether it’s Encarnacion or the decorations, the end result is a half-ashed effort and poor execution in just about everything they do.
I have to say that we are very spoiled by the Montreal Canadiens. Everything they do is first class. Problem with tickets not waiting at the will-call? They’ll hunt, and if they can’t find the problem, offer two seats in the Loge. (Happened to me.) Friend has a cast, and you have tickets for SRO, so it’s first-come first-served? They’ll let you in 2 minutes before they are allowed, so that you and your friend won’t be trampled by the Cup-starved fans. (Happened to me.) They have a between face-off band in the seats, rather than the loud and obnoxious music blaring. Imagine, prime seats intentionally not being sold, so the band can play for you. As for the Expos, they had the best looking ushers around.
What about for you guys? Do you have a good sports town where they care about the fan experience? Or are you just a number?
Monday, March 31, 2008
By , 07:03 AM
Just wondering what everyone thought of the piece last night. If you didn’t see it, you can read the whole thing here or watch it here:
Friday, March 28, 2008
I’m linking this mostly because Gassko is cited throughout (in the WSJ!). But, basically, a win is a win is a win. A free agent win is worth 4.4MM, whether that comes directly off the play of the player, or has been “performance enhanced” by his manager. If the average manager gets 2MM, then a manager that can add 1 win should get 6.4MM. Of course, if you have a below average manager, one who gets LESS out of their players than an average manager would, then pay him 1MM.
Regardless of how much fans think a manager can impact his team, management has already spoken: up to 1 win above average. And, one would guess that unless a manager is senile, no further than 1 win below average. As long as management believes that Dusty Baker is one of the 30 best managers in the game, they believe he has limited impact in adding or subtracting wins.
Sunday, March 23, 2008
By , 06:10 AM
Granted, it was not a formal survey, but shouldn’t scouts be able to do a MUCH better job than this? I mean, can’t your Dad or you uncle have done as good a job as the scouts in choosing these players? You can argue that the various defensive metrics quoted do NOT accurately represent the players’ true defensive value (yeah, right), but you can’t argue with the other metrics, like baserunning, basestealing, and bunting. The metrics discussed in this article DEFINE a player’s value in that area. Seriously, does/should any GM/team pay ANY attention to what scouts think of a player’s defense, arm, bunting, speed, baserunning, basestealing, etc., as in this list?
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Soap opera in MLB. If MLB were smart, they’d have cameras following Selig, Dupuy, Francona, Schilling, and everyone else. It’d make a great TV show. The short of the matter is simply:
MLB’s decision not to extend an appearance fee of $40,000 to all team coaches making the trip to Japan. All players are receiving the $40,000 appearance fee for the Tokyo trip.
...
According to Francona, the coaching staffs of previous MLB trips to Japan all were paid the same stipend as the players.
I remember reading a story about the women’s Olympic soccer team in SI several years ago, and they had a really good player, but no one was passing her the ball. The coach confronted his other players and he asked the girls why they didn’t. They told him that she was a b!tch. The coach was perplexed and said: “Yeah, so?”. And that is the difference he was faced with in gender. Male teammates will play, pass to, and generally be teammates with murderers, rapists, drug abusers, and wife-beaters. There is basically nothing that a male athlete can do, that another male athlete can’t overlook, on a personal level, if it means a W in the standings. In the case of this women’s Olympic soccer team, this was far from that case. Just being a b!tch was enough to be a pariah. To be clear, I’m not denigrating women or men here. Just pointing out something on a behavioural basis. I’m sure Pizza Cutter can give us his insights on the matter.
Why are MLB teams treating Bonds like the US Women’s soccer team treated its star player? Has the totality of the personal experience of Barry Bonds crossed over the murderer, rapist, wife-beater line? Really? I mean, really? That’s my argument here: really?
...this is what happens.
“You see, Mrs. Longoria, there’s this rule called the Super 2s, whose impetus can be traced back to Roger Clemens and Peter Ueberroth. Roger was 30 days short of the 3 years vesting for arbitration. Now, vesting happens at around 2 years and 120ish days (depends on how other players were called up that year). Ryan Braun is at 129 days, so it’s going to be real close. And the Rays are not new to playing this game. BJ Upton has 1 year and 126 days and Jamie Shields has 1 year and 125 days.
So, these lawyers are trying to game the system, and trying to force vesting for these players at 3 years and 120 days. Could we fix that? Well, sure, we can include an age-based cutoff, and the player vests when either one occurs first.
What’s that, what if your boy is one day short of vesting by playing time, and one day short by birth? That’s why Tango doesn’t like tiered approach in anything (be it in arbitration or mortgage insurance or anything else), since that’s how lawyers game the system. You can have a sliding scale, so that one guy can be say 80% vested, and gets 80% of the arb value, and 20% of the slave value. No tiering, no gaming, no lawyers.
What’s that? No, this will never happen, because MLB and MLBPA will always throw the young kids under the bus, reasoning that those good enough will eventually get their due.
Now, let me go talk to John Tavares’ mom, and tell her that she should have conceived her son a week earlier. He’s already overqualified for his Junior hockey league, and he must now stay there an extra year, or go to Europe. The NHL doesn’t want him! A sliding scale system would have allowed a player like this to be drafted in an early round, like I’ve already posted about.”
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
By , 12:49 AM
I thought of this a long time ago, and I bet lots of you did too! To the maker goes the spoils! Ya gotta put yur money where yur mouth is! Etc.
Monday, March 10, 2008
I’m with Zimmer. If anything stands between you and the base, you go through it. If the player didn’t want to get hurt because it’s a spring training game, then don’t stand there. You think they don’t finish checks in hockey exhibition games? The only time you hold back is when it’s your teammate.
And to top it all off, Girardi was a big league catcher. Shame on you.
Friday, March 07, 2008
Basically, for a $25 or $30 markup on the price of your ticket, you get all the free food and drinks you can consume (other than beer). I don’t understand the complaint of some, other than they get the chance to be quoted in a newspaper, like this guy:
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Nothing new, just a recap of some things going on around the web.
(Hat tip: USSM)
Thursday, March 06, 2008
Bill James interview:
There are more than six times as many pitching changes in a game now than there were two generations ago. That’s a huge change in the game. And it’s not a change for the better, in my view. Maybe it’s a change for the better in terms of trying to win. But in terms of its impact on the fans, how the fans enjoy the game, I don’t see that as a change for the better. So I’d probably try to organize some kind of move to see if we couldn’t get an agreement to limit the number of pitching changes in the late innings.
This is the rule that I would adopt. I’ve thought about this for a long time, and I don’t see why this doesn’t work. One time per game, you get a free pitching change without restriction. Otherwise, when you put a pitcher on the mound to start an inning, he has to stay in the game until he’s charged with a run allowed. In other words, you have a limit on how often you can put a pitcher out there, let him face one batter and “let’s bring in somebody else.”
Hat tip: Greg.
Wednesday, March 05, 2008
These guys asked those other guys some questions. Here’s my take:
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Thursday, February 28, 2008
Chris Long
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Interview with Dave Lawson two years ago. Based on comments on Patriot’s blog, the stat that Lawson refers to it Total Average (for the hitter and the pitcher).
from Amazon
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