The Unwritten Book is Finally Written!
An in-depth analysis of: The sacrifice bunt, batter/pitcher matchups, the intentional base on balls, optimizing a batting lineup, hot and cold streaks, clutch performance, platooning strategies, and much more. Read Excerpts & Customer Reviews
Great job from Andy. The post was from last year, but it’s irrelevant to its historic context.
First let me explain what this graph shows. Let’s start with the black line. It shows the fraction of all relief appearances that last just one batter. For all these data, the outcome of the plate appearance is not considered--could have been a strikeout, a home run, a ground-into-double-play, or anything else. The black line above shows that the fraction of relief appearances lasting just one batter was roughly constant at 6-7% from the mid 1950s to about 1990. It seems to have peaked around 1970 at 7.5% and was as low as 5% some years in that span but it was generally pretty flat. In 1992 there was a sudden jump to almost 9%. More on this as we look at the rest of the data.
The other 4 lines on the chart--LH, RH, AL, and NL--break out the data for each subcategory. The LH line, for example, shows the fraction of left-handed relief appearances that lasted one batter. (Do not confuse this to mean the fraction of all relief appearances that were by left-handers.)
We see, then, that left-handed one-batter relief appearances were roughly constant at about 10% of all left-handed relief appearances until 1992, when it suddenly jumped up to 15%. The figure has hovered around 16% ever since. Among right-handers, there was no significant change in 1992 and just a small increase in 1993. Overall, right-handed relief appearances have remained quite flat at just 5% lasting one batter.
He then goes on to note that Larussa’s Oakland, and Tony Fossas of the Redsox, were the big catalysts, much to the benefit of Jesse Orosco.
Good stuff as only Joe can. I like the one on Jack Morris.
***
By the way, after Jack Morris is off the ballot, who will become the polarizing figure that the new-age would ignore, but the old-guard will trumpet? Lee Smith? I think he’s stuck at his 45% level. Once Morris off the ballot, is the war over? The closest I think will be David Wells among the newcomers. But, given who he is up against (Clemens, RJ, Maddux, Pedro, Schilling, Mussina, Smoltz, Glavine), I don’t think he has a prayer of getting the Morris-love, even though, really, Wells, Morris, and Moyer are probably three peas in a pod.
Of players born since 1924, here are the least number of plate appearances for Hall of Famers:
7831 Kirby Puckett
8237 Duke Snider
8364 Yogi Berra (C)
8379 Bill Mazeroski
8669 Johnny Bench (C)
8695 Orlando Cepeda
9019 Gary Carter (C)
As you can see, it’s extremely tough to make the Hall of Fame with under 9000 plate appearances. Players with a short career, born after 1924, but not in the Hall of Fame:
8553 (I’m) Keith Hernandez
8288 Sal Bando
8220 Bobby Grich
8050 Reggie Smith
8010 Jimmy Wynn
7314 Dick Allen
Even if you can make a strong case for any of these guys, their (relatively) short career works against them. Others who will soon join them:
8672 Edgar Martinez
8030 Larry Walker
7980 Jim Edmonds
7745 Mike Piazza (may benefit from being catcher)
7660 Mark McGwire
Jim Edmonds is of course a much better candidate than Kirby Puckett, even though their careers lasted just as long. He’s a better hitter and better fielder. Kirby got the “my career ended too early” bonus votes
Bernie Carbo’s home run was bigger than Fisk’s. I’m not taking anything away from Pudge. His home run was great — it was a game-winner — but the game was tied. Carbo’s home run came in the eighth inning with us down by three runs. It was huge. It was the second biggest home run I ever saw, right ahead of Fisk’s.
According to WPA, Carbo’s homerun added 0.44 wins, while Fisk’s added 0.36.
Evans said that Dave Henderson’s is #1, and it added 0.73 wins to that game.
This is the number of relievers that have faced more than 400 batters, by season. We see that through 1989, there was an average of between half and one pitcher who faced that many batters per team.
From 1990-1999, that number was cut substantially. It was cut even further from 2000-2006.
And, since 2007, no reliever has faced more than 400 batters.
2004 was the last season that the true relief-warrior was used in a meaningful role. Scot Shields faced a whopping 454 batters, on his way to a fine career with the Angels.
Veteran’s committee is setup to practically act in a “better late than never” scenario, and occasionally, even a “better too late than never”, like now. That’s what happens with the political system that we’ve come to know and love.
In my view, I’d setup the HOF process to have eligibility for players at age 45, and for 10 years. Elect two players per year. And after that, it’s over.
That’s the argument that Cook is making (and I’m not buying it):
Being able to expand the zone therefore isn’t random but part of a reward that comes with extra command (for pitchers) and a better fielding tool (for catchers) rather than sheer entropy and chance. An automated strike zone would largely nullify catcher defense, making only a strong arm and good blocking skills necessary and thus modifying the characteristics of the position. We’d see more Posadas and fewer Lucroys. And to channel my inner Helen Lovejoy, won’t anyone think of the Molinas? But is this what we want? Do we want to radically change the meaning of a position?
I would add that “selling the call” is part of all sports, but baseball and a few others also require the umpire to be not only an enforcer of the rules but a judge of intentions.
...
Likewise, in baseball some of the advantages that a battery gains are the deserved byproducts of skill, and an automated strike zone would eliminate this fascinating aspect of the duel at the plate. Also: part of the greatness of Mariano Rivera, Greg Maddux, and Roy Halladay comes from their ability to expand the zone, which isn’t just an umpire gift coming from nowhere but a component of their mitt-hitting talent. While it is certainly infuriating to see at times, the way such pitchers carve hitters and umpires alike by painting the strike zone has to be appreciated. For a long time, the duel between the batter and the battery has had certain dynamics and certain characteristics, and an automated strike zone would radically change that relationship. Personally, I have grown to appreciate pitchers and catchers who can control the strike zone. Baseball is a game of deception, and controlling the strike zone is a fine nuance that I’d hate to lose.
I’d be happy to lose all that. Put another way: if we always had the automated strike zone, would we then be happy to have human umpires that Livan Hernandez can sell?
Do we want John McEnroe to berate the chair ump and linesmen so that they get a bit more scared next time there’s a close call, or do we just LOVE the Hawk Eye that simply says yes or no?
Anyway, Cook does a good and balanced job to lay out the choices. And, if he gives the argument to keep the human ump as well as can be written. And if that’s the best, then I’m not convinced in the least.
Bonds’ showing in the Baseball-Reference ELO rater is more consistent with someone who had 92 WAR than 172 WAR. That’s (implicitly) 80 WAR of bad distaste that the voters have given Bonds. Interestingly, since 1999 (and the suspicion is he started PED use after the accolades given to the 1998 HR bash boys), he’s accumulated 68 WAR. So, not only have the voters basically stripped Bonds of his career since 1999, they’ve given him an extra punishment of not counting his 1998 season either (78 WAR since 1998). Or another way to look at it, they’ve stripped off nearly half his career.
Red Sox third baseman Wade Boggs, however, had an even better year as he lead the AL with 72.6 VORP and finished second in WAR with 8.5—just one-tenth of a point behind Blue Jays slugger Jesse Barfield (8.6) —while posting a .357/.453/.486 triple-slash line. Clemens had just 4.6 WAR, making him nearly four wins less valuable than Boggs.
Wezen runs them down, with the most glaring one being Ben Sheets in 2004.
In 2004, the runaway winner was Roger Clemens, followed by runaway 2nd place Randy Johnson. Third place was a grab-bag between Oswalt, Jason Schmidt, Zambrano, and Pavano. Sheets was #7 among starting pitchers with a single vote.
We see that in 2004, the ERA leader, Peavy, had 166 innings, so he was discarded immediately by the BBWAA then (as he would be today).
The ERA leaders after that were RJ (2.60), Sheets (2.70), and Zambrano (2.75). Under the current mindset, that would be enough for these three guys to lead in Cy Young, with the W/L being the tie-breaker, and IP being the next tie-breaker. So, RJ, Zambrano, Sheets would have been the top 3.
Clemens with his 2.98 ERA (18-4), Pavano 3.00 (18-8), Oliver Perez 2.98 (12-10).
Then Jason Schmidt 3.20 ERA (18-7).
Roy Oswalt would have sneaked in somewhere near the back, with his 3.49 ERA (20-10). He’d be that year’s Gallardo.
So, at some point between 2004, where W/L took center stage and ERA was #2, and 2009, where ERA took center stage and W/L was #2, there was a shift in mindset among the BBWAA. To some, that meant that the sabermetic revolution has taken hold. The reality is that all that happened was the W/L took a back seat to ERA.
WAR by the way would have said:
RJ easy #1
Sheets easy #2
Then a cluster for #3, with Zambrano, Schmidt, Clemens, Pavano leading the way. Oswalt is nowhere in sight.
I would have added one more constraint: they must not have played in 2011 (i.e., should be semi-retired at least). Having Ackley and Pineda on the all-time team is… silly.
I *might* also add that they can play one final season on some other team. These guys simply love the game so much that they don’t know when to retire, so one last kick o the can with someone else, before they hang it up, would seem to be in order.
In any case, it’s a fun and silly exercice to begin with, so, can’t be too strict here.
Dave shows some recent players and their team’s attendance. Basically, under the “perfect storm” scenario, you get a Junior signing that boosts attendance by 25%. Otherwise, you’ll get a range of zero to 10% (ARod) increase.
Now, we need something to compare that too. After all, are people coming for the novelty of the new player, or because the team is winning more. The basic rule of thumb is that every win adds 2% to your attendance total. If a player adds 3 to 5 wins to a team’s total, we’d expect to see a jump of 6% to 10% to its team’s attendance. And this is EXACTLY WHAT WE SEE!
That is, there is neither a marquee draw, over and above whatever win-talent that player has, nor is there even a short-term one-year novelty boost.
This guy is basically the exception that proves the rule:
The Reds got the biggest boost after acquiring Junior, but that was basically the perfect storm of a situation – he was a local hero whose Dad had starred for the franchise, and was the most marketable baseball player on the planet at the time. Perhaps no team could ever pitch their fans a more attractive acquisition than Griffey “coming home” to play in Cincinnati and follow in his father’s footsteps. The pitch worked, and they drew an additional half million fans in his first year with the Reds.
It’s worth noting, however, that the burst was extremely short lived. The Reds won 85 games in Griffey’s first year, but the fans didn’t stick around in 2001, and their attendance dropped back to 1.88 million, lower than it was the year before they acquired him.
At age 29-32, Cliff Lee had an ERA+ (i.e., ERA adjusted relative to league and park) of 146, which mean he gave up earned runs at a rate of 1/1.46 = 68.5% of the league average. He also had 900 IP (and 125 starts).
Of pitchers born 1918 (Feller) through 1971 (Pedro), I looked at the best pitchers via ERA+, with at least 700 IP and 90 starts in their age 29-32 seasons.
There were 14 pitchers who met the above thresholds, and had an ERA+ of 132 or better. The average ERA+ of those 14 pitchers was 145, and IP was 920.
Two of those pitchers had at least 181 wins from their age33 season onward: Randy Johnson and Warren Spahn. That’s 14%.
These are the 12 pitchers that did not get 181 wins, but were just as good as Cliff Lee, in their age 29 - age 32 seasons:
Greg Maddux
Pedro Martinez
Tom Glavine
Bob Gibson
John Smoltz
Jim Palmer
Kevin Brown
David Cone
Roger Clemens
Curt Schilling
Tom Seaver
Mike Mussina
If I look at the next group of 14 best pitchers, none of them got 181+ wins after age 32. If we look at the 14 best pitchers after that, one (Niekro) got at least 181+ wins.
The only other pitchers who managed to get 181+ wins after age 32 was Jamie Moyer.
Therefore, if I were to set the odds for Cliff Lee, it would probably be close to 10%.
As for Clemens, McNamara says on the show that, after the last out of the bottom of the seventh, Clemens told him as he came off the mound, ‘‘That’s all I can pitch.’’ McNamara said there was never a blister on Clemens’ middle finger, only the start of a paper cut.
Clemens has consistently denied asking out of the game, and he does so again on Wednesday’s show. McNamara was emphatic in his TV interview, saying, ‘‘I don’t lie.’’
Clemens was a workhorse. If that’s all he had left, and he says it, then this is a GOOD thing. So, a guy gave it all he could, tells you that he left it all out there, and… that’s a problem? I wish all players were like this.
I remember Gretzky talking about when the Oilers lost to the Islanders in the Cup finals (Islanders won their 4th straight Cup, and the Oilers were going to win their first Cup the next year). Gretzky, Mess, and a couple of other guys went to the Islanders locker room after the game to congratulate them.
They couldn’t believe what they saw: virtually every player bandaged up, clear that they could not play another game. Gretzky turned to his buddies and said that he could still play several more games, no problem, and his teammates concurred. They knew right then that at some point, they need to play on their reserves.
So, that’s what Clemens did, he played on his reserves until he had nothing left in his tank.
from Amazon
Recent comments
Older comments
Page 3 of 342 pages « First < 1 2 3 4 5 > Last »Complete Archive – By Category
Complete Archive – By Date