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Bill James popularized the Defense Spectrum. It’s one of those brilliant insightful ideas that is clear, concise, and obvious. It goes something like:
P-C-SS-2B-CF-3B-RF-LF-1B-DH
It has two specific meanings. The first is that the fielding premium is higher on the left-side than the right side. The second is as a player’s fielding abilities diminish, he gets shifted over to the right side.
How true is the second part?
Nate Silver is going gangbusters in blogging, and it’s a fun read. He talks about the latest Mets player fans can’t stand, Lastings Milledge. The interesting nugget is on how well he did on the road in the minor leagues (check out all those triples and home runs and also see how his teammates did. But, when he says:
They’re back!
Here are Betancourt, Everett, and Jeter. I love seeing a SS making double the plays expected at the extreme range (other side of the 2B bag), as Betancourt does and Everett almost does… and Jeter doesn’t.
(Little note: you can tell it’s at least double if the “difference line” is above the “expected line”.)
Genius is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. We need more hard workers like Jeff Sackmann.
The run value of a play is around 0.80 runs. I’ll post a clear illustration as to why this is so, in a few minutes.
I posted this on another thread, regarding John McDonald of the Jays (Tigers and Indians)
It must be a virtual certainty that he’s a great fielder, since he’s never had 300 PA, has come into the league at almost age 25, is now 32, has 1146 career PA, his career OPS+ is 56, with a career high of 75. His career high in salary is 500,000$. He’s also had SIX different managers on three teams.
Here’s my challenge to you. Find all players who:
Last week, David Pinto started publishing results of his fielding system. I’m excited to check it out, and will post my comments here.
Dial’s ZR hated Jose Reyes early in his career, and now it thinks he’s great. The data’s just not good enough - yet - to take one year of defensive performance and use it to evaluate a player’s defensive abilities.
-- David Cameron
To be fair, most mets fans i know think reyes has actually gotten a lot better, not that he wasn’t measured properly in prior years.
-- Kyle S
What to make of this?
In the 2007 edition of the Bill James Handbook, there is a section called The Fielding Bible Awards, with a panel of 10 experts, including The Fans’ Scouting Report. These awards are for fielding excellence, and the winners were recently announced.
Interesting to me is how did the Fans’ do. That is…
Placido Polanco is a league average hitter. He is on the other hand, an excellent fielding infielder. Derek Jeter is a wonderful offensive player. He is on the other hand, at best, an average-fielding infielder, and likely a below-average-fielding infielder. Which one do you want?
When I was looking for fielding data to generate my Scouting Report ballots, it took me a while to find a good source. Some places merged guys like Abreu into one line, or ignored one of his records, or put multi-position records into 1, etc. Everything wrong about what you’d want a database, and these sites had it. Except SI. They had both the data split the right way, but also in an easy to use format. If we look at their SS data:
Darin Erstad switched from CF to 1B back to CF. There is no more unusual position switch than going between CF and 1B, other than catcher. How did the fans evaluate Erstad, year-to-year?
There is a thread on BTF about whether the Braves should re-sign A. Jones. I posted these remarks.
Zimmerman is one of those “finds” (or more like a stamp of approval) from the Fans’ Scouting Report. Before the season started, this is what was being written about him:
Jim Bowden doled out after he was drafted, saying Zimmerman had defensive ability comparable to the all-time greats at third base, to Brooks Robinson and Mike Schmidt and Scott Rolen, 32 Gold Gloves among them.
Now, you hear exaggerations all the time. However…
Very. Here’s the evidence, using the Fans’ Scouting Report.
UPDATE (Sep 19)
This is your last chance to vote, before the Globe Gloves are awarded at the end of the season. Voting has already surpassed last year’s total, but the more hardcore fans who contribute, the better.
INITIAL (AUG 21)
It’s the fourth annual fielding survey. I’m hoping for another great turnout this year. Please take a few moments, and participate!
http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/
You can also check out the results for 2005. And if you have a blog, please, spread the word.
Can we use our guts to figure out how much a player can impact fielding? Sure…
Looks like some interesting fielding numbers will be published for our consumption
In the long-run, a player’s ZR should pretty much match his UZR, making this a good metric when looking at careers.
And yes, the aging pattern…
It’s easy right? We’ve all played ball at some point. Put your best fielders where they can help the most, and put your worst fielders where they can do the least damage.
Ichiro has won the Fans’ Scouting Report for all three years of its existence. He is, according to observers, the best fielder in the game. Rightfield?
May 16 22:50
Dodgers’ win reversed because Mattingly did not attest to proper score!
May 16 20:44
How to beat the shift
May 16 20:02
Sponsoring MLB jerseys
May 16 19:34
Now you frame it, now you don’t
May 16 16:56
Did Manny Pacquaio actually quote Leviticus?
May 16 16:06
Does changing your pitch frequency lead to substantial change in results?
May 16 14:18
Extra Innings: One-minute review
May 16 14:16
This particular criticism of UZR is unfounded
May 16 13:21
Psst… wanna intern for the Astros?
May 16 12:23
Arena wars
THREADS
May 16, 2012
Now you frame it, now you don’t
May 16, 2012
Dodgers’ win reversed because Mattingly did not attest to proper score!
May 16, 2012
Does changing your pitch frequency lead to substantial change in results?
May 16, 2012
Sponsoring MLB jerseys
May 15, 2012
Andre The Hawk Dawson speaks
May 15, 2012
Euro 2012 Preview
May 15, 2012
How to beat the shift
May 15, 2012
Will Pujols end the season with at least 30 HR and .500 SLG?
May 15, 2012
Kershaw v Strasburg, part 2
May 15, 2012
Did Manny Pacquaio actually quote Leviticus?
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