THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Wednesday, June 06, 2007

Symposium on Statistics and Operations Research in Baseball

http://mitch.watnik.com/symposium.html

Lineup of speakers
Cory Schwartz, Director of Statistics, MLB.com
Chris Long, Senior Quantitative Analyst, San Diego Padres
Sig Mejdal, Senior Quantitative Analyst, St. Louis Cardinals
Nate Silver, Columnist, Baseball Prospectus
Jeffrey Ma, Vice President of Research, and Mark Kamal, Statistical Analyst, Protrade.com
...

I don’t know Sig or Mark, but of the rest, they are all good guys.  Mark’s posted here once or twice.

One Year and One Million Hits Later

I just noticed that we launched this blog just about exactly 1 year ago (Jun 2, 2006), and we just passed our 1 million page hits.  Thanks for stopping by (or hitting refresh so often)!

I’ll see your Cease and Desist letter, and raise you a better one…

I’m always fascinated with Cease & Desist (C&D) letters for some reason.  Maybe because I’ve always loved law shows.  There was this one between BP and Primer.  (I remember thinking that I should create a site called BaseballPraetor to one-up them all.) And the one between MLB and Ray Kerby.

But, this one I love between two web hosts, complete with lawyer letters from both sides.  Great read, and the presentation was even better.

Monday, June 04, 2007

What’s an intern?

I thought this was an interesting article by Joyce Roseberg on the Federal laws on what qualifies as an intern. 

Saturday, June 02, 2007

A-Fraud

Someone I know was on the receiving end of a fender-bender.  She tried to settle with the offending party because she felt bad for her and didn’t want her to get insurance points, but the offender’s father got in the way, and so, she had to let insurance settle it.  She felt bad.  So, I told her: if you really feel bad, and since the insurance company will probably pay more than what the damages really are, take the excess, and give it to the girl.  She didn’t feel that bad about it.  All part of the phony outrage.

When I was playing softball, our team was killing the opposition.  We went around the order once already, and it was clear they weren’t in our league.  When it was my turn at bat, I took a half-hearted swing, and flied out to LF.  End of inning.  In a later inning, a teammate hit a sure inside-the-parker, but he jogged around the bases, and stopped at 3B, even though he could walk home.  These are sportsman’s-like plays.

If Joe Torre really believes what he says:

“They were angry,” Torre said. “Oh, there’s no question. I can’t say I blame them, but what are you going to do about it? What’s happened has happened.” Torre said he spoke with Rodriguez after the game.
“It’s probably something he shouldn’t have done,” Torre said. “I don’t sense he’s going to do it again.”

He should have instructed the next batter to swing at any and every offering.  Oh, I see.  He didn’t feel that bad about it.  There was a remedy to the situation, if you really believed that something wrong happened.

***

I should also add the reason that you don’t do this play.  And, the Fenway fans, as you see later in the above article, show you the reason.  Why is it that you call for a play?  It’s so that two players don’t collide: avoid injuries.  But, for now, until forever, Fenway fans will call for the ball.  Runners on base will call for the ball.  ARod and Jeter may end up colliding one day.

Tuesday, May 22, 2007

Plagiarism: is there a bigger turnoff?

I listened with amusement for years as Joe Rogan was calling Dennis Leary a joke thief, and this other comedian a joke thief.  More recently, he’s been calling Carlos Mencia a joke thief.  A few weeks ago I saw a clip of a Bill Cosby classic, about how fathers kill themselves helping their kids play football, learn football, do everything football, and after many tough years, when it culminates with a touchdown on national TV, and the camera goes on the kid, the kid always says “hi mom”.  Mencia did the exact same joke.  (You can find the clips on You Tube.) Ever since, I’ve been turned off by Mencia. 

There was a joke that Norm McDonald did about what you wish for if you only had one wish… and if you only had two wishes… and if you only had three wishes, and on and on.  Very funny piece, and Norm is funny to begin with.  But, then I heard a clip of the joke from someone else from decades ago.  Norm ripped it off.  I want to believe that the Norm case is different.  Maybe I missed the beginning of the bit where he said “there’s this joke that goes...”. 

Anyway, here’s some football plagiarism for you to consider:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/05/18/ramblings/5144/

Some knucklehead actually accused me of stealing the FIP formula, which you can read about on the slow-loading Wiki DIPS page. 

JC once accused BP of stealing his Mazzone idea on his blog.

I think in baseball, we are mostly spared, because the best sabermetrician around was also the first one around, and he opened the floor to most ideas to begin with.  I’m doing stuff in hockey that is completely my own, with not a bit of inspiration from others.  For whatever reason, I’m not publishing my work yet.  However, every time I turn around, I see someone who did something similar to what I’ve done.  Obviously, we each did it independently.  But, once I come out with my stuff, I may be be accused of stealing.

Friday, May 18, 2007

Family Plan winner’s curse: fake outrage in NYC

Roger Clemens’ condition to speak to him is that he needs a Family Plan clause.  The second condition, apparently, is that he’d be the highest paid player in baseball.  The ball is in the court of the other 30 teams.  It’s pretty basic: if you don’t like it, don’t agree to it.  NY, unlike other cities, complains, after reading the agreement, and after signing the agreement, that the agreement is… unfair! 

Now, the people of NYC didn’t sign the agreement, but they could have well guessed the conditions.  They could have voiced their displeasure before the signing.  And the Yankee players as well.  And Joe Torre.  Torre is on the radio all the time, and rather than giving his support, he always says, “We’ll see if it’ll become an issue”.

And, the media, maybe the NY-based media, which loves to create fake outrage.  Where were they when Houston kept offering him the deal?  The media, rather than saying “what’s the story?” end up saying “what can we make into a story?”.

If you don’t like something, don’t agree to something.

Tuesday, May 15, 2007

The Satisfaction Deflation Rate

I disagee with Patriot that this is a freak show stat.  Baseball-Fever is filled with freak show stats.  This is not one of them.

What makes this not a freak-show stat is that it attempts to quantify something real: our satisfaction with our team.  In short, how much of your soul would you sell for a moment in time?  Patriot posits a 3% satisfaction deflation rate.  If the 1994 Expos went on to the World Series, would the debacle that followed have been acceptable?  In short, could they have lived life in Miami from 1998-2002, if they got 1997 out of it?

I think it’s a definite worthwhile exercice, and it’s also personal.  Each person will have his own satisfaction deflation rate for regular season wins and losses, as well as for playoffs and World Series. 

The process makes it legitimate, even if the expression of the units themselves don’t have a meaning.

Thursday, April 26, 2007

Thank you Justice Kennedy for your chivalry

Ruth Marcus at the Washington Post:

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Tuesday, April 24, 2007

American Idol: The Stockholm Syndrome

In their first year, American Idol was fun.  They had a limited number of contestants, and the producers weren’t out there milking their fans.  In their more recent years, they figured that they can increase the number of shows by increasing the number of participants.  The risk of having 30 teams make the playoffs is the possibility that the Royals win the World Series.  But, the AI producers figure that a public that loves their show will make sure that the best go on.  Even the untalented Antonella Barba only went so far.  But, when you’ve got David Letterman and Howard Stern giving exposure to VoteForTheWorst.com, the producers get their comeuppance.  Since it was their own judges (Simon, Paula, Randy) who selected the even less talented Sanjaya into the “final 24”, then this means that they’ve got to live with the possibility that the Royals will make it to the final round.  Getting Howard and his millions of fans on this bandwagon is the perfect balance against the producers trying to milk AI for all its worth.  That’s the deal.  You try to make millions of dollars every week by selling to the public a lemon, and you’ve got Howard and VoteForTheWorst balancing things out.  If you really didn’t want to have Antonella and Sanjaya anywhere near the finals, then you have only two entities to blame: the producers for allowing such a large field and the judges for being the ones who selected the participants. Sanjaya was voted off, which Howard said was rigged, much the same way that Rory Fitzpatrick was blacklisted by the NHL in its All-Star game.

Be a man AI, and take responsibility.  Don’t let your fans think that what Howard and VoteForTheWorst did was wrong.

Friday, April 20, 2007

Who gets Jessica Alba?

Go here and put in your birthdate.  According to this site, here are my compatability scores with her: Physical 87% Emotional 98% Intellectual 95% Overall 93%.  Can anyone do better?

When I tried it with my wife, I end up with: Physical 82% Emotional 100% Intellectual 1% Overall 61%.  The intellectual thing probably makes sense, in that I’m very analytical and she’s very artistic.  I hope that’s what it means. 

And this is me with Karl Rove: Physical 33% Emotional 53% Intellectual 93% Overall 60%.  Finally, Karl Rove may need to date Linday Lohan

Where have all the Blacks gone?

Phil points to an article by Chris Isodore asking about where Black ballplayers went.  I recently read that the number of black players was in the 30% range in the 1970s.  It is under 9% today.

The number of black people is around 10% in USA.  But, that’s not the pool of people to select from.  The pool is the 17-23 year old males athletes, mostly in USA, but also from Latin America among other areas.  And, in USA, it’s not just 17-23 year old male athletes, but the 17-19 year old male athlete in HS, and 18-23 year old male athlete in college.  And, as Chris points out, teams are targetting college players.  So, what percent of male athletes in HS are black?  I dunno… 30%?  How many male athletes in college are black?  I dunno… 10%?  One-third of one and two-thirds of another gives you 17%, which is still twice as much as what we have in MLB.

So, where are they?  Football and basketball are also viable places for athletes to go.  Maybe 30% of male athletes between 17-19 in HS are Black, but what’s the split between the 4 majors sports?  60% basketball?  30% football?  20% baseball?  1% hockey?  As someone else who commented in Phil’s blog said, Michael Jordan may be responsible for the huge shift, if there was one, of black athletes choosing basketball.  (In hockey for example, Patrick Roy is single-handedly responsible for all the Quebec goalies in the league; Bobby Orr may be responsible for all the rushing defensemen in the league.) And as Chris notes in his article, football scholarships give more opportunity than baseball scholarships in college. 

I also think that while the Vince Colemans, Otis Nixons, Miguel Dilones, and Gary Pettises were all the rage in the 1970s and 80s, the move away from small ball to long ball means power is emphasized over speed.  And, real or perceived, Black = speed.  Is it any surprise that the players that MLB.com choose for its all-hustle ballot was the “scrappy white guy”?  Also, the “extra player” on MLB roster is now a pitcher, not a position player.  And, the talent pool of pitchers that are Black is much smaller than for position players.

What we have here is an entire set of independent circumstances, each plausible, each on its own not having enough of an effect, but when accumulated results in a huge swing in Blacks in MLB.

By the way, I can’t stand the term “African American”.  I’m from Canada, so am I supposed to say “African Canadian”?  In Canada, we have a huge number of people from Haiti and Jamaica.  What am I supposed to say?  And my parents are from Europe, so should I be termed as “European Canadian”?  I don’t have a problem with the label, but rather the labelling process.  Why target only one group for labelling?  The correct answer is that the group be called whatever it wants to be called.  But, I hear “African American” mostly from White people not Black.  Then again, alot of my Black exposure is Dave Chappelle and Chris Rock and they definitely don’t say “African American”.

Alyssa Milano, baseball fan

A fun blog by Alyssa Milano. 

Secondly, even if all the rumors about my MLB love life were true (which they’re not) –- we should really examine the double standard that is in full effect here. I know for a fact, that there are many MLB players (plural) or athletes in general for that matter who have dated many Screen Actors Guild members. I won’t name names (cough Derek Jeter cough). And yet, these guys are considered cool and we give them props for getting their high profile starlets. On the other hand, women who have dated more than one guy in any profession are easy targets for ridicule. I am speaking personally of course, but I am sure any woman that reads this entry can relate to this double standard and how it may pertain to their lives relative to their own experience.

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

Oh how we chirp when we are winning!

After the Padres beat the Giants last night in a pitcher’s duel (the Giants only allowed 2 hits in the loss), here’s what the Padres starter, Chris Young, said after the game:

“We’ve got great character in here and I don’t think we’re going to panic or worry, especially in close games,” Young said. “The way our bullpen is, we feel like if we can keep it close, our bullpen is going to hold it for us, then we’ll push across a few runs and win it.”

Reminds me of some other team chirping just a few days ago…

Read More

Saturday, April 07, 2007

Sandy Koufax: Calling Bullsh-t on Larry King

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/27/AR2006112700884_pf.html

They drive and drive, Larry and Herbie up front, Sandy and another kid named Bernie in the back. They find the Carvel, where the price for three scoops is indeed 15 cents, and then they pile back in the car. “Sandy knew New Haven pretty good,” King goes on. “He says, ‘Listen, I’ll drive you around. Cut down this street, and we’ll be on Broadway, and I’ll show you the main drag.’ “ Somehow, they end up at an election rally. Somehow, Larry and Herbie end up on stage introducing the mayor. “Sandy can’t believe it,” King says. “He collapses. He’s on the floor . . . he couldn’t stop laughing.” It takes King more than 10 minutes to tell the entire story, and when he is done the ovation is loud and long. “Every inch of this story is true,” he says. “It seems like it’s not, but it’s true. I swear to God.”

But there’s a problem.

“This is Sandy Koufax,” the man on the phone says a few days later. “I’ve never been in New Haven, not to this day.”

Furthermore, he says, he and Larry King have never been friends.

In fact, he says, even though they grew up in the same neighborhood, he didn’t get to know King until long after both had left Brooklyn behind. King was on the radio by the time they met, and the Carvel story had already become a part of his life.

“I asked him about it,” Koufax remembers.

And?

“He just laughed.”

Patriot: Calling BullSh-t on Jeff Brantley

I love these.

Wednesday, April 04, 2007

Zamboni

Owning a team?  Being GM?  Batboy?  Fughedabowdit.  What can be cooler than being the Zamboni driver?

Cheater, cheater

Zumsteg takes a look at K-Rod. 

I really ought to order his book and JC’s real soon.  I’m not really a JC fan, but I’m always drawn to his blog for some reason.  I disagree with him on so many things.  However, Derek has stated on his blog that he disagrees with me on most things too!… while at the same time, I find I agree with Derek most of the time.  I guess it’s all a matter of context.  Anyway, if anyone wants to offer their opinions on their books, feel free to add them here. 

Tuesday, April 03, 2007

Are you a geek?

I am. 

Crossing The Line

Read the first two blog entries:

http://headrush.typepad.com/