THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Wednesday, October 08, 2008

Nate Silver meets Stephen Colbert

Now this is cool.  Forget Dan Rather, Keith Olbermann, and whoever else Nate has met.  Stephen Colbert?  Guest-speaker to the President’s dinner?  Wittiest man in America?  A one-time presidential candidate?  That’s really cool.  Nate looked nervous, unlike his very calm demeanor with the other guys.  Must be tough to be sparring with a comedian as sharp as Colbert.  Colbert was pretty good to Nate.  Nate had one good line where he tried to put a baseball analogy to the race for presidency, likening Obama to the Rays, that we’re in the 9th inning down by 2, and Palin was just picked off first base.  Must feel great to make a funny guy like Colbert laugh. 

Nate has Obama with an 89% win expectancy as of today.  Bottom of the 9th, 1 out, down by 2 is a 96% chance of winning.  Down by one though is a 90% chance.  So, that’s where we are in the race.  Bottom of the 9th, 1 out, down by 1 run, McCain batting, Obama pitching.

Wednesday, October 01, 2008

Nate Silver meets Dan Rather

Sweet.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Aaron Sorkin

Fictitious conversation between West Wing President and Obama.  Here are my favorite:

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Circular logic

Tracy Ringolsby says:

The purpose of the BBWAA is not to vote on and hand out awards, although that has become a function that has grown in stature because of the attention given to the BBWAA awards, which I assume has developed because of a credibility others have given to the BBWAA voting process.

If by “others” he means “BBWAA”, then sure!  Very Orwellian. 

Phil the Deconstructor

There is no one in the World Wide Webbing Internets that can take an argument, social or sabermetrical, and deconstruct it like Phil Birnbaum.

Monday, September 15, 2008

Wisdom of Crowds in book publishing

HarperCollins is posting unsolicited manuscripts on AuthOnomy.com to solicit the public to evaluate the stories.  It is a fantastic idea, as you guys would have guessed I would have said.  I’d also say that Lulu.com offers a similar opportunity for authors.  (Hardball Times knocked out of #1 spot after 4 years!) What you would require there is more aggressiveness on the part of Lulu to get the buyers to rate the books they bought.  This kind of system works wonders on Ebay.  Indeed, I think it made Ebay.

(Hat tip: Len)

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Amethyst meet Interlock: Amnesty?

Non-sports post.  Enter at your peril, avoid at your pleasure.

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Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Mercy Rules

I’m in favor of them, especially if a team has an 80 or 90 goal lead.  Seriously, what’s the point?

Five ways I’d change my sport

Puck Daddy asked bloggers and writers to list five things they’d change about the NHL. 

Anyway, no reason we can’t do this for MLB.  So, if you have a blog, create a “Five Things I’d Change About MLB”, and be as serious or funny or as creative as you can.  And make every other blogger do the same.  Credit Puck Daddy, and not me.

A few of the good ones in NHL:

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Tuesday, September 09, 2008

Life Expectancy of a President

The CDC site (pdf) shows the life expectancy of people, throughout the century, by age.  For example, a person born in 1900 was expected to live, at the time of his birth, for 47 more years.  Weird.  I presume wars and epidemics cut short many lives.  A person born in 1950, at the time of his birth, was expected to live 68 years.  A person born in 2005 is expected to live 78 years.

Now, what if you are already 65 years old?  If you were that age in 1950, you had 13 years to go.  Today, you have 19 years to go. And if you are 75 years old?  In 1980, you had 10 years to go.  In 2005, it’s 12 years to go.

So, when you compare McCain’s age, you need to do it based on the health of the times.  I am presuming that someone who is 72 years old today has some 14 years to go.  What was Reagan?  69 or so in 1980?  He probably had some 13 years to go?  McCain’s age is equivalent to Reagan’s age the first time Reagan was in office (presuming people of “average” health).

What I would like is for guys who have a passion for this to report the life expectancy for all the presidents, going back as far as you can.  We’ll probably find that McCain isn’t in as bad shape as the mainstream is making it out to be.  And, I would bet all those early presidents were in terrible shape.

No political commentary in this thread.

Thursday, September 04, 2008

Matthew Scully, speechwriter

Non-sports post.  Enter at your peril, avoid at your pleasure.

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The end of phony outrage: instant replays

The most important rule change ever implemented in the history of sports is when baseball allowed instant replay on HR calls.  Now that we’ve had our taste of the first one, perhaps now all our phony outrage over the change will go away.  I hope the phony outrage slippery-slope arguments will go away too.

It was and is no big deal in the NHL, and they review every single goal (6000+), though some are more obvious than the others.  I blame Field of Dreams.  I love that movie, but g-dd-mn it, it has reinforced this romantic notion among some fans that their spouses wish they would heap on them from time to time.  These baseball romanticists will agree to dissolve a contract-for-life made of love and give up half their assets more readily than to accept any intrusions into their virgin baseball game.

When did sportswriters become our moral compass?

Yet another mailing it in article about sports athletes making too much money prompting another mailing it in blog post (mine).

Yes, yes, we get it.  If a sportswriter could play baseball at such a high level that millions of people would willingly pay to see him, and thousands of companies would fight over each other to sponsor him and his team, said sportswriter would take the equivalent of what a teacher makes, and let the owner take the rest of the money.  If we was told that he had to play in Cleveland, even if he really wanted to play in San Diego, well, he would do what’s right for the country and play in Cleveland.  It is no surprise that we have such a moral compass in our sportswriters that we’ve given them the task of being the Holy Voters to determine permanent enshrinement in the Hallowed Hall of Heaven.

Really?  I mean… really?  I see this all the time, in every facet of life.  You walk a mile in someone else’s shoes, and guess what: you are no better than that person.  Spare us your moral indignation.  You are a schlub, just like the rest of us. 

Roel Torres

One of my favorite writers, now available at Hardball Times.  I suspect there are lots of people who wish they were non-tall, non-white, non-blonde after that.

Saturday, August 30, 2008

Great TV Moments

Non-sports post.

Back in the day when TV actually had more impact than it has now, one of the really good shows was Taxi.  Go to the 1:10 mark and watch my favorite Jim moment.

Friday, August 22, 2008

Soap for the mouth

Non-sports post.

I just read an email that says:

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Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Josh Hamilton screams, fans support him

Josh Hamilton, in a rush to get to the birth of his child, allegedly screamed in the face of an autograph seeker in the lobby of his hotel.  The comments in that thread, and in those of BTF, are filled with posts of support, saying that the girl “asked for it” with her pestering attitude.

I would suspect that if the girl were to replay the incident, she’d have handled it better.  And I would suspect if you were to ask Josh that he would have handled it more politely.  In this case, both were wrong, and the combination doesn’t make it right, just worse.  Of course, both can be forgiven, if they wanted to act as decent human beings, but something got the better of them.

I don’t really want to talk about this particular incident.

But, I want to put you in his shoes.  What would you do?  And let me change the parameters.  Say that you were not being pestered by a lady with a child, but by an unruly mob of 3 to 5 guys.  Say you do not have your teammates with you, but you are alone.  But, you do have a very pressing once-in-a-lifetime engagement, your mind is a bit clouded, and you really want to get out of there as fast as possible.  What do you do?  Do you size up the situation, and sign the damn autograph, or do you stick to your principles, and live with the consequences?  And, if you stick to your principles, do you (initially or eventually) take a best-defense-is-a-good-offense approach, or do you remain unfailingly polite throughout, crushing them with kindness?

How common is your name?

Hat tip Roel Torres:

There are 2,622 people in the U.S. with the last name Tiger.  There are 396 people in the U.S. with the last name Tango.

Wednesday, August 06, 2008

How about we have two major leagues…

One for athletes who never put anything other than what god has provided (if you can kill it, drink it, or smoke it, it qualifies), and another league for athletes that will take anything that is produced in a lab, be it Sudafed or the latest in gene-doping.

Then, let the fans decide which league they want to watch.  After the first league dies a quiet death after 10 years, we can all stop the hypocrisy and admit that we have failings as human beings that make us sick but are afraid to admit it.

We can also have three types of bars: one wear they serve alcohol and allow smoking as long as you are at least 16, serve alcohol with no smoking as long as you are 16, and one where they don’t allow either.  Given the choice, there’s no question that you will choose either option 1 or option 2, even if that means you as an adult have to watch a 16yr old drink alcohol.  (I’d also make the drving age 21, or equip cars with Breathalyzers tied to the ignition.)

(Hat tip: THT)

Tuesday, August 05, 2008

Assumed risk in attending a game

When you participate in something, you assume the risk of that activity.  As I understand it, it means: what can you reasonably expect to happen if you do what you do, even if it may be fairly unlikely. 

Well, the line has been drawn, and in hockey, a hockey player on the ice, who is 200 feet away from the action, is not expected to engage the opposing goalie, if that goalie has to skate all the way down the ice and starts pummeling him.  And in hockey, the referee does not assume any risk in ejecting a player and having that player later come back on the ice and attacking the ref.

You’ll often hear from non-fans that they have a high tolerance level, that basically anything goes.  They might argue the McSorely incident and the Bertuzzi incidents were all assumed risk.  They are not, and now we have more incidents to add to the list that not all action is automatically assumed risk.