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Monday, May 07, 2012
Shot rates in OT
Hawerchuk with a couple of charts for us.
I still remember watching that 4OT game, Islanders/Capitals. I was exhausted watching it, so I can only imagine what it was like for the players to actually play it.
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Saturday, May 05, 2012
FIPer
This blogger is certainly correct that I shouldn’t have IP in the denominator. I’m pretty sure I talked about this a few months ago. You can just replace IP with PA/4.3, but it’s going to affect the coefficient of the K slightly.
Anyway, while it is very interesting that his version of FIP (that excludes BIP in the denominator) has as good or better correlation with next-year ERA, it really doesn’t make logical sense. Consider a pitcher like Radke or Rueter that has 80%+ of his PA as BIP, and a pitcher like RJ that has 65% of his PA as BIP. That knowledge is thrown out the window. If they both happen to have the same “core” ratio, they get the same score. So, that part doesn’t make sense. Now, the blogger is saved by the fact that most pitchers don’t have this problem.
Anyway, his basic idea is actually pretty good (and I’ve used a variant of it in the past for other things). But what you also need to do is incorporate the rate of BIP per PA to get the fuller picture.
But we definitely need a better name!
Yankees with no Mo
THT reprinted the article I did from two years ago.
Which team has been beating Vegas so far?
VegasWatch compiles this great data, and the winner is… Orioles! Followed by Rays, Dodgers, and the Nats.
Now, let’s watch this unfold, and see if Vegas adjusts, or if they will consider this small-sample-sizitis.
Friday, May 04, 2012
Reader Bleg
If someone is interested:
I greatly appreciate your work, although sometimes I don’t get all the math. Would you please consider doing, or asking one of the other smart guys to do, an aging analysis comparison of Albert Pujols and Jimmy Foxx. To my somewhat untrained eye, the similarities are remarkable. No one fell off the cliff like Foxx and now Pujols?
Anyway, please consider this because one of you could do a really outstanding analysis that many of us would find interesting and Angels officials and fans might find outright scary. Thank you for your consideration of this request. Robert
Sometimes I think I can watch a pitcher for one inning and assess him pretty well…
This does not apply to most pitchers.
I saw Rafael Dolis throw an inning today in the Cubs game. The announcers said they are thinking about using him as a closer (their ace). He has never pitched above AA in the minors I don’t think.
I’ve never seen him before and I know nothing about him.
I am pretty sure he is terrible for one reason and one reason only. He has no idea where his fastball is going, presumably because he cannot repeat his (very simple) delivery.
He threw a 92-95 somewhat sinking fastball only. He had absolutely no command or control of it, and that did not look like a fluke to me (it could have been I suppose). It did not look like he had a lot of “life” or movement on the fastball other than some slight sink. If he has any secondary pitches, I would have to assume that he can rarely use them since he is so often behind in the count or if he does get behind in the count he cannot simply throw the fastball for a strike when he has to.
The absolute, number one thing a successful pitcher has to have, almost bar none, is command on his pitches, at least the fastball. Without that, unless you have a ridiculous fastball in movement, velocity or both, you cannot be a successful pitcher. The reason is obvious but I’ll spell it out. First, you will walk too many batters, second, you will make too many mistakes with location, and third, batters will be able to guess fastball and location because you are behind in the count too often.
Why would the Cubs ever think that this guy is even close to being an ace reliever? Or maybe I am wrong in my assessment. I would not let this guy pitch in the majors yet until if an when he gains some control/command.
If managers could think like a saberist (and possess the other skills necessary to be a good mgr)
Q. When would be an excellent time to NOT use your great closer with a 3 (or even a 2) run lead?
A. When your closer is someone like Marmol or Valverde.
Explanation??
(0) Comments •
Name this player!
He is one of the greatest players in the history of the game. A first ballot hall of famer, easily. If you told almost anyone, including those who play, manage, coach, and broadcast the game of baseball, that if he were to get injured and lose an entire season and you replaced him with a league average player at that position, his team would lose less than a win and a half in expectancy, they would think that you were a complete idiot who needs to go back to your mother’s basement.
Who am I talking about?
Is Phil Mushnick too idiotic to be a racist?
I think this is what this writer is trying to say.
Run expectancy chart on a MLB scoreboard? Yes!
Mike and Jeff talked about it on twitter, and here is proof. Darn images are blocked at the office, so I have to wait four more hours to see it myself. I alerted Pete Palmer of this, since he was the one that did the most to expose it to the rest of us. And thanks to the new Astros gang for trying out new things!
WAR updated on Baseball-Reference
I just saw the post, so I’ll read through it, and comment as appropriate. Sean reached out to me on a couple of things, so I’m keen on seeing what the final product looks like.
UPDATE 1: I just read through all the descriptions on Sean’s site. The explanations are tremendous, and I have no major objections. I’ll give it a second read-through, and will just make some minor, sporadic comments.
More updates below…
Farm system rankings correlating to future wins
Matt goes through the Baseball America rankings, and see how many wins are generated by pre-free agents. Good stuff.
Jon Weisman
Always good to see good things happening to good people.
MLB formally partnering with a feeder system
Since college baseball is akin to a minor league, it seems natural for MLB to finally be involved.
But, wouldn’t it be weird if the Dodgers draft a high school kid, and then that kid decided to go to Stanford, on an MLB scholarship (partially paid for by the Dodgers)? Will this setup potential conflicts of interest, or at the very least, appearance of such?
I’d think, therefore, that if MLB is going to donate say one hundred scholarships, then the top high-school draft picks would get some sort of preferential treatment. (Presuming there’s some sort of point-system in awarding scholarships, then the higher you are drafted, the more points you earn.)
Educate me as to how the current scholarships are awarded.
Oil Can Boyd
For those of you who missed out on the 1980s, Oil Can was one of those characters to appreciate. Great job by Bruce!
Crowdsourcing broadcasters
Wonderful idea for a project. I love it when people try out their ideas for all to see.
I agree that the high correlation between the separate categories is trouble-some, which really means that you either collapse the categories, or find some more granular categories to ask about.
Thursday, May 03, 2012
Should students be disciplined at school for Facebook or other social media transgressions?
Non-sports!
I think that a student’s private life is no business of the school’s, but I think I could be persuaded to change my mind.
Change it…
(74) Comments • 2012/05/09
HR do not come in bunches
So shows Ben over at BPro.
First chart is for the population of players, and the second one is Albert Pujols. Of course, I think most people would mean “bunches” as in many HR spread over a short period of time. But, naturally, if you are going to have that kind of distribution, you are going to get more multi-HR game than expected. So, while you can ask Ben to followup with a part 2 (and that’s fair of the reader), the likelihood is we’re going to find nothing.
There isn’t a streak alive that a person hasn’t tried to build a narrative around. Random variation is such a real concept that it makes everything you see actually not real!
How over-priced is the free agent market?
I looked at how all the free agents did in the 2011 season. A team comprised of ONLY free agents, and randomly chosen, would have cost a team 160 million dollars, and in return, would have won around 70 games. (You also would have had to sign 40-45 players.)
In comparison, your typical team that ignores the free agent market, your Royals, Pirates, Rays, Marlins (except today), Twins, A’s, etc, those teams are a bit better than 70-win teams, and they do it at a below average payroll. And if you add up all the player development costs (minor leagues, scouting, baseball ops, signing bonuses, etc), probably has a baseball budget of say 100MM$. They have to sign some 200-300 players.
If 2011 is representative of what happens, then the free agent market is about 60% overpriced overall (with all the overpricing happening at the mid-to-high end). That’s if 2011 is representative.
My guess is that 2011 was a bad year for free agents, but that the free agent market is probably 25-50% overpriced, if we expand the number of years.
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